In a recent interview, Dr. Nicolai Petro reminds us that even if there was a grand bargain between the USA and Russia, Ukraine might be internally too fractured to move to peace.
Your analysis is exactly correct! And if I recall correctly, wasn’t it John Mearsheimer who predicted in 2015 that if the US and NATO continued to insist that NATO continue to be pushed to the east that “Ukraine would be wrecked”?
As I’ve mentioned previously, if the US had listened to people like my parents after world war 2, to George Kennan starting in the 1970s, and to John Mearsheimer starting in the 1980s the world would be in a much better place today.
And for even more profound reasons, if the world were to listen to what I have to say now, we as a species would be in a much better position to try to write our history in a way which would be much more beneficial to us as a species than that which will most likely occur if we continue down the path we’re on.
I watched yesterday the interview... great content. Professor Nicolai perspective of the internal issues of Ukraine state is eye opening to understand why the things are as today. Seems that the inflow of money and guns to Ukraine only increased the power of this far-right militian, parallel power. Not a good perspective ... the biggest threat is far from the Klemelin.
The Bandera cult are not just an alarmingly strong influence, they're an integral part of the post Maidan Ukrainian state. They're direct descendants of the localized-version Nazi franchise Ukraine had during WWII. Ukraine's western sponsors were fully aware and looked the other way, because supporting violent fascists is unfortunately not out of the ordinary at all for the West in cold-war / post-cold-war proxy maneuverings. (ie violent tendencies and disregard for moral norms are standard characteristics of a disposable proxy)
There's no chance currently that Ukraine will undo this structure. The male population has already been thinned out by the mass conscription (and resulting refugee flows), and the ones who are exempt are either wealthy (therefore are not fighters) or plugged into the fascist grifter network. The entire security structures of the state would unfortunately have to be destroyed to restore what ordinary people would consider normailty. But if/when that day finally comes, many of the fascists I think would simply flee to Europe and wreak havoc there. And probably some of the neocons in Washington would even consider it a useful phenomenon.
Putin dreams of "denazification" in the pattern of post-WWII Germany I suppose, but that was a very comprehensive and necessarily forceful multi-year process of re-education and rebuilding of institutions from scratch. It is impossible without Russia gaining physical control of the entire territory, and even then something of a stretch. It's a stretch because, firstly, a large population of fascists would have to be identified and detained. And secondly because to make it work massive subsidy is required to demonstrate a better life is being delivered by the new state (think Xinjiang). But a hypothetical post-war Russia needing to transition back out of the wartime economy might I think not have the ability to prioritize reconstruction spending being sent to a ravaged, traumatized, and perhaps ungrateful west-Ukraine (contrast peacetime PRC with limitless capacity for building things). This legacy of the hypocritical Western sponsors of this disaster looks like it will haunt us for a long time.
Ok, let's assume the extreme nationalists remain a potent force in Western Ukraine, and no country is able to change this. What next? Presumably they will be strong enough to launch military attacks against Russian annexed territories, or Russia itself, even it the official Ukrainian government has signed a peace agreement. How much support would they have - would the majority of Ukrainians be sick of war, and try to oppose the nationalists, or could they goad the government into starting another war?
Currently no "goading" is necessary - they *are* the government, specifically the parts of it which apply force.
Looking ahead, if the war were to end as it must sooner or later... Without external sponsorship, the fascists would be a manageable hazard to neighbors, even if still in charge. The trouble is NATO keeps feeding them, because that's what the US and UK do when they get frustrated - (eg Syria for the latest instance of this - substituting rebranded AQ terrorists for fascists in that case). The world is used to it tho.
Ukrainians could and did vote for a candidate who'd advertise rapproachment and modus vivendi with Russia. Like Zelensky himself circa 2019, before he flipped and became a hawk. So much for voting. Revolution is not in the cards, because for revolution to work, at least half the police/army/etc need to be on side. Even more importantly, population who was firmly opposed to the ultranationalist program largely fled the coutry already. And many more who would be capable of participating in a revolution were "mobilized" - so the manpower for revolution is depleted. You gotta realize the phenomenally corrupt mobilization program also doubles as an ethnic cleansing tool for the fascists to get rid of males who they feel don't belong - despite the warrior bravado they largely stay in the back, enforce the order, and collect the money while random conscripts do most of the dying.
It'll be some form of a "failed state" I think, dimensions of which could be all over the place, since the future scope of the war is still wide open. However a peace will continue to be possible no matter what happens, for the simple (and ugly) reason that Trump has an ongoing obligation to some of his key political sponsors to focus on Yemen and Iran.
Officially! The settlement of Nadiya in Luhansk region has been liberated! – 3rd OSB
The total area of liberated territories is 3 km². The capture of Nadiya cost Russia 2 months of effort and 2 mechanized regiments, the 752nd and 254th of the 20th Russian Army, wiped out.
On the video – the first shots from the 30-hour operation.
The reason why the Uko-Nazis started/escalated the war in 2022, when they prepared to increase the pace of their genocide against ethnic Russians (most Ukrainians are actually Russians), was because its ruling kleptocracy had plundered the country so thoroughly that it was on the verge of collapse.
"If Kyiv were to move toward a negotiated settlement, nationalist militias could seek to overthrow the government, plunging the country into internal chaos."
Your analysis is exactly correct! And if I recall correctly, wasn’t it John Mearsheimer who predicted in 2015 that if the US and NATO continued to insist that NATO continue to be pushed to the east that “Ukraine would be wrecked”?
As I’ve mentioned previously, if the US had listened to people like my parents after world war 2, to George Kennan starting in the 1970s, and to John Mearsheimer starting in the 1980s the world would be in a much better place today.
And for even more profound reasons, if the world were to listen to what I have to say now, we as a species would be in a much better position to try to write our history in a way which would be much more beneficial to us as a species than that which will most likely occur if we continue down the path we’re on.
Having three big powers to determine everything in the world is a not a world I want to live in.
I watched yesterday the interview... great content. Professor Nicolai perspective of the internal issues of Ukraine state is eye opening to understand why the things are as today. Seems that the inflow of money and guns to Ukraine only increased the power of this far-right militian, parallel power. Not a good perspective ... the biggest threat is far from the Klemelin.
Very good piece and very plausible. These ultra right militias might also turn westward into the heartland of Europa in order to make a point or two.
The Bandera cult are not just an alarmingly strong influence, they're an integral part of the post Maidan Ukrainian state. They're direct descendants of the localized-version Nazi franchise Ukraine had during WWII. Ukraine's western sponsors were fully aware and looked the other way, because supporting violent fascists is unfortunately not out of the ordinary at all for the West in cold-war / post-cold-war proxy maneuverings. (ie violent tendencies and disregard for moral norms are standard characteristics of a disposable proxy)
There's no chance currently that Ukraine will undo this structure. The male population has already been thinned out by the mass conscription (and resulting refugee flows), and the ones who are exempt are either wealthy (therefore are not fighters) or plugged into the fascist grifter network. The entire security structures of the state would unfortunately have to be destroyed to restore what ordinary people would consider normailty. But if/when that day finally comes, many of the fascists I think would simply flee to Europe and wreak havoc there. And probably some of the neocons in Washington would even consider it a useful phenomenon.
Putin dreams of "denazification" in the pattern of post-WWII Germany I suppose, but that was a very comprehensive and necessarily forceful multi-year process of re-education and rebuilding of institutions from scratch. It is impossible without Russia gaining physical control of the entire territory, and even then something of a stretch. It's a stretch because, firstly, a large population of fascists would have to be identified and detained. And secondly because to make it work massive subsidy is required to demonstrate a better life is being delivered by the new state (think Xinjiang). But a hypothetical post-war Russia needing to transition back out of the wartime economy might I think not have the ability to prioritize reconstruction spending being sent to a ravaged, traumatized, and perhaps ungrateful west-Ukraine (contrast peacetime PRC with limitless capacity for building things). This legacy of the hypocritical Western sponsors of this disaster looks like it will haunt us for a long time.
Ok, let's assume the extreme nationalists remain a potent force in Western Ukraine, and no country is able to change this. What next? Presumably they will be strong enough to launch military attacks against Russian annexed territories, or Russia itself, even it the official Ukrainian government has signed a peace agreement. How much support would they have - would the majority of Ukrainians be sick of war, and try to oppose the nationalists, or could they goad the government into starting another war?
Currently no "goading" is necessary - they *are* the government, specifically the parts of it which apply force.
Looking ahead, if the war were to end as it must sooner or later... Without external sponsorship, the fascists would be a manageable hazard to neighbors, even if still in charge. The trouble is NATO keeps feeding them, because that's what the US and UK do when they get frustrated - (eg Syria for the latest instance of this - substituting rebranded AQ terrorists for fascists in that case). The world is used to it tho.
Ukrainians could and did vote for a candidate who'd advertise rapproachment and modus vivendi with Russia. Like Zelensky himself circa 2019, before he flipped and became a hawk. So much for voting. Revolution is not in the cards, because for revolution to work, at least half the police/army/etc need to be on side. Even more importantly, population who was firmly opposed to the ultranationalist program largely fled the coutry already. And many more who would be capable of participating in a revolution were "mobilized" - so the manpower for revolution is depleted. You gotta realize the phenomenally corrupt mobilization program also doubles as an ethnic cleansing tool for the fascists to get rid of males who they feel don't belong - despite the warrior bravado they largely stay in the back, enforce the order, and collect the money while random conscripts do most of the dying.
It'll be some form of a "failed state" I think, dimensions of which could be all over the place, since the future scope of the war is still wide open. However a peace will continue to be possible no matter what happens, for the simple (and ugly) reason that Trump has an ongoing obligation to some of his key political sponsors to focus on Yemen and Iran.
I am laughing reading this piece of shite analysis Pascal.
Let’s say Putin withdraw from Ukraine completely. What do you think would happen in Russia if Putin gives up the war and leave Ukraine?
Will the Russian ultra nationalists accept it and have Putin taken out these forces?
Officially! The settlement of Nadiya in Luhansk region has been liberated! – 3rd OSB
The total area of liberated territories is 3 km². The capture of Nadiya cost Russia 2 months of effort and 2 mechanized regiments, the 752nd and 254th of the 20th Russian Army, wiped out.
On the video – the first shots from the 30-hour operation.
The reason why the Uko-Nazis started/escalated the war in 2022, when they prepared to increase the pace of their genocide against ethnic Russians (most Ukrainians are actually Russians), was because its ruling kleptocracy had plundered the country so thoroughly that it was on the verge of collapse.
Saint Zelensky is in a dead end.
If they don’t agree, USA won’t supply armaments and intelligence.
Without those 2 Russians will overrun Ukrainian positions.
"If Kyiv were to move toward a negotiated settlement, nationalist militias could seek to overthrow the government, plunging the country into internal chaos."
Could not Putin be thinking, make my day?