Oh, it won't last long. The Iranians have destroyed all US THAAD radars ($1.1 bn a pop), which means that they have permanently incapacitated the US missile shield in the region. The US and Israel are blind.
They have also levelled to the ground the US 5th fleet base in Bahrain. Resupply and Rearm? Diego Garcia...
Last night, Iran demonstrated their latest long-range (2000 km) ballistic missile by striking Tel Aviv. This is not a multiple warhead missile as we can read in the Western press, but a manoeuvrable ballistic missile that in its terminal phase launches 80 thermal decoys to shield the warhead from interception. Why does this matter? Well, imagine a couple of these missiles launched against a US aircraft carrier: no interception, the carrier would be badly damaged or sunk.
The US and Israel do not have air supremacy. All strikes on Iran are stand-off launched out of the range of Iranian AA from ships or planes.
There is a shortage of both long-range missiles and interceptors.
Consequence? No infrastructure in the region can be protected.
Finally, Israel is getting mauled in Lebanon.
If this conflict lasts, what we'll see is the demise of the US military for at least a generation.
That's why the WH is seeking out weaker targets, like Cuba...
Oh really? Have you not bothered all these years to find "Dialogue Works" , the duran, Neutrality Studies, Judging freedom.........?????? Syriana Analysis, Glenn Diesen....
Good for you Pascal! One of the rightwinger tactics is to ask for references and then nitpick. I get this all the time. Then they act surprised when I step on their illogical followups.
Thx. I don't think it's right-wingers only. The left-wing is very savvy at it too. That's old tactics to discredit facts that challenges their pre-formated opinion.
I read your original comment and thought you were a thinker - then I read your next comment, basically what you wrote equated to 'go google it' in response to someone asking you for a source!
I see that everywhere now.
You can't make a claim and when asked for a simple source link, tell people to go find it themselves!
One piece of evidence is complaints from Israelis that air raid alarms sound now just before impact - or not at all. This is due to destroyed anti ballistic missile radars.
Satellite pictures show it as well, available on X or Telegram
Well, that's called israeli censorship. Hezbollah last night stroke Tel Aviv and destroyed a satellite communication facility. So it's not going well for Israel.
I hope you are right but there is no way to verify any of this. The high altitude photos of the allegedly 4 destroyed US missile bases are meaningless to most people. Scott Ritter was telling us a couple of years ago that Hezbollah was seriously pushing back Israel... there's too much desperate propaganda and hopium so without clear photo and video evidence it's all just blah blah I'm afraid.
It is very apt that you mention the scandal of the bloody, needless war on Iraq - John Pilger's 2004 book "The New Rulers of the World", has one of his epic essays "Paying the Price", where he details what he found on the scandal at that point.
It has only been even worse since then, but at that point Pilger detailed how everyone who created that war KNEW that both the sanctions before and the war itself would kill hundreds of thousands of innocent people, and that they were literally making up fictional stories of a "threat".
And they still did it anyway. Because their agenda was smash Iraq on behalf of the israeli regime.
A next generation of the same cabal of crooks that will do anything for zionism or at least when paid by zionists, is now running the show. And again they are determined to take the world to hell in a handbasket, just to smash Iran on behalf of the israeli regime.
And the human cost of this war could end up even worse than the alrready huge of lives they destroyed in Iraq and Syria (where BTW they have now installed in power someone they said was a rogue terrorist that they were fighting)
Fully agree but I suggest prison is too good a venue for the Epstein transatlantic elites whose debauchery, barbarism and greed is beyond redemption. It is time to forgo mere opposition to oligarchs and the rich they are leading us nowhere except hell on earth! Before our total subjugation by the Palantir AI Surveillance State. Active existential Resistance must ensue to degrade the hyper capitalist Neo liberal state we all Labour under!
The deepest mistake in essays like this is still treating war mainly as a moral drama.
Modern wars are often decided less by legitimacy language than by system resilience: enforcement cohesion, replacement capacity, and endurance under pressure.
That is why decapitation rarely settles the question it is supposed to settle.
"The war is extremely unpopular in the US - especially among Trump voters who trusted his promise not to start any new wars."
The polls indicate exactly the opposite: At least 80% of Trump voters would do it again. Opposition among Democrats is around 90%, while among Independents it's about 60%.
"So was it the case, as many observers suspected, that the US and Israel were only pretending to negotiate in order to lull the Iranian government into a false sense of security?"
Obviously it was. And they did exactly the same thing immediately before the 12 day war. We can be pretty sure it won't happen again, either with Iran or any other country on earth.
Thanks Pascal for publishing this declaration from a wise and experienced german politician in the EU-parliament.
Germany got colonized after the first World War when they lost it, with an joint effort from the world community.
Japan got decolonised after the second world war when they lost it by an joint effort from China, the USSR and USA.
Israel seems to have changed from a progressive nation building country to an expansionistic colonial building cancer state acting as a ruthless mini-imperium-builder that threatens, bombs, kills, destroys and occupies its neighbours. Their zionism has gone lunatic and cracy and speckled with repulsive hubris. This unlawful new big war i West Asia must be stopped as soon as possible. I think the world needs to de-colonize Israel and their malign patron the USA and some of its vassals.
Israel is now a pain in the ass for all nice and friendly jews around the world and Israel is with its perpetual aggression and leashed brutal wars will promote more anti-semitism. Israel destroys itself and its soul from within.
Free Palestine, Chagos Island, Las Malvinas, Cuprys, Ireland, and man more colonies and get rid of the yankees and bad english intrudements.
Time for a fairer and more peaceful world. Say no to military alliances. They bring you to war. Say yes to peace and no to war like von der Schulenberg says. He knows as a good wise german.
Despite an undoubted level of defence/military capacity, my feeling is that the psychopathically cowardly Trump and Netanyahu along with their satanic circle of influence, are relying more on divine intervention (aka a wing and a prayer) on behalf of the "chosen people(s)" to get them out of the hole they've dug for themselves. It won't be just Europe but the "collective West" that will be paying the price for this act of warmongering lunacy carried out on behalf of the MIC and Apocalypse Now fanclub.
The divine intervention component is no stranger to Israeli strategy; it's how biblical "deterrence" was produced. Yet, it not only can cohabit with political ambitions, they are a couple made in heaven.
This article hits all the right notes. In addition, we have the example of Pakistan (who has nukes) and Afghanistan working out their differences via the law of the jungle, not via the international mechanisms that were supposed to solve such disputes. And yet more significantly, we face a global economic collapse, which appears just around the corner, and anthropogenic climate disaster, what has already been making moves. Soon it will be obvious; the jungle has won.
as an (I hope) averagely rational person I would agree with pretty much everything said here by Michael von der Schulenburg.What does strike me a bit at the moment is an element of Netanyahu's policy in his attack on Iran which I rather thought (as an average simpleton) would have been obvious from the outset - especally in light of Pascal's recent realisation that we may be dealing with a war conducted to some extent by religious fanatics. Surely, viewed from the apocalyptic standppoint, the obvious trend in Israeli polcy would be that by attacking a country that they knew full well would be able to relaliate in a way which could do extraordinary harm to the Israeli state (or maybe the Israeli leaders haven't heard, or weren't listening to, the various, I assume realistic, assessments of Iran's attack capabilities), the situation could be engineered whereby Israel could claim that the only thing that could save them from annhilation would be, no bluffing, to carry out a nuclear strike? I assume Iran, currently, is likely to follow a policy of gradual escalation - assuming their strike capacity is as formidable as many experts seem to think - so presumably the perception that Israel is being annihilated may yet be some time away, but I can't but feel there's a curious silence at the moment about what I should have thought was the most salient point in this whole wretched issue. Maybe by not speaking about it we can hope it'll go away, what do I know?
I really doubt it was a surprise- they got him in his office. Israel had already assassinated many leaders in Iran and Lebabon. The Iranians may be mad but they are not stupid. I reckon the guy decided to martyr himself and, being who he was, assumed "God" will pardon him for martyring his family as well (assuming any of this is true).
Isn't that sort of the plan? The "managed decline" of the west discussed in semi-secret round table groups like the Club of Rome, the Bilderberg group, the World Economic forum, and the Council on Foreign relations. The well connected around the world write books about these subjects. Some of these individuals use "crisis" to further their goals, besides making lots of money, influence, and power. In my humble opinion, the war is being used to further the agenda. Like WW1 and WW2 were used to further an agenda.
One has to admire Iran’s brilliant plan (and perhaps Russia’s and China’s as well) to carry out this great destruction in the GCC (Gulf) countries, it is a masterpiece!
Because now:
1) The GCC will stop trusting the US as before, some may opt to say goodbye!
2) They are already stopping or diminishing their exports => economic decline (or even default) and therefore, a decline in investments in America and Europe
3) With the economic collapse of certain GCC countries there might even be a change of regimes, e.g., Bahrain, which could become friendly to Iran
4) With the destruction of the radars and the infrastructures of the US in the GCC region, US and Israel are now blinded and don’t know when and from where Iran will strike them
5) The Economic burden to the US will exceed $1bn per day which will further increase the US debt
6) For how long will Israel last taking a beating everyday? I read they are almost out of interceptors and missiles go through unobstructed...
7) The US and Israel have already started playing dirty by hitting energy targets and desalination plants in Iran
If Iran hunkers down and does not falter its plan will execute itself automatically
Oh, it won't last long. The Iranians have destroyed all US THAAD radars ($1.1 bn a pop), which means that they have permanently incapacitated the US missile shield in the region. The US and Israel are blind.
They have also levelled to the ground the US 5th fleet base in Bahrain. Resupply and Rearm? Diego Garcia...
Last night, Iran demonstrated their latest long-range (2000 km) ballistic missile by striking Tel Aviv. This is not a multiple warhead missile as we can read in the Western press, but a manoeuvrable ballistic missile that in its terminal phase launches 80 thermal decoys to shield the warhead from interception. Why does this matter? Well, imagine a couple of these missiles launched against a US aircraft carrier: no interception, the carrier would be badly damaged or sunk.
The US and Israel do not have air supremacy. All strikes on Iran are stand-off launched out of the range of Iranian AA from ships or planes.
There is a shortage of both long-range missiles and interceptors.
Consequence? No infrastructure in the region can be protected.
Finally, Israel is getting mauled in Lebanon.
If this conflict lasts, what we'll see is the demise of the US military for at least a generation.
That's why the WH is seeking out weaker targets, like Cuba...
https://www.eclaireur.eu/p/the-unreported-harsh-reality
This bunch of idiots created hi-tech scrap.
If they had invested those billions in actual peace and prosparity this world would have been quiet nice.
I pray every night that someone would finally sunk an us aircraft carrier and its whole staff (about 5000 evil souls).
That's neve something to wish for, because it'll mean an escalation. But if the US and Israeli don't back down, it may well happen.
They can escalate as mush as they like. Whatever they do they can’t win.
Would you share where you source these claims from?
Stop being lazy and look for them youself, they're all accross the medias :D
I wrote a comment, not an article.
At least recommend some non-western sources please
Al Jazeera for starters. Take also a look at free sat imagery.
Al Jazeera can hardly be rated as non-western.
Al Jazeera is Qatari as far as I know, and their reporting is western biased
Not in its "real", arabic version.
Oh really? Have you not bothered all these years to find "Dialogue Works" , the duran, Neutrality Studies, Judging freedom.........?????? Syriana Analysis, Glenn Diesen....
Good for you Pascal! One of the rightwinger tactics is to ask for references and then nitpick. I get this all the time. Then they act surprised when I step on their illogical followups.
Thx. I don't think it's right-wingers only. The left-wing is very savvy at it too. That's old tactics to discredit facts that challenges their pre-formated opinion.
I read your original comment and thought you were a thinker - then I read your next comment, basically what you wrote equated to 'go google it' in response to someone asking you for a source!
I see that everywhere now.
You can't make a claim and when asked for a simple source link, tell people to go find it themselves!
That's ridiculous. And fallacious.
No it's not! You can verify what I am saying with open sources: press, sat imagery etc.. Now, for my non open sources, well, they are non open.
I don't think you quite understood my point.
If you make a claim, and ask someone else to verify it - that's fallacious reasoning.
I didn't say anything you said was false. I'm just saying you need to at least add a link or a direct name of the source where you got it from.
It's the only logical way that works.
Also, telling other people to go and find something you already have, wastes other peoples time.
...therefore, without even an attempt of providing a source - your claim will be negated.
We're definitely on the 'same side' though eh!
One piece of evidence is complaints from Israelis that air raid alarms sound now just before impact - or not at all. This is due to destroyed anti ballistic missile radars.
Satellite pictures show it as well, available on X or Telegram
I am not making a claim, I wrote a comment, not an academic article.
You write out of blind optimism and wishful thinking, I'm afraid.
No I am not.
If Iran could take out a US aircraft carrier, why haven't they done it already? What are they waiting for, more schools to be bombed?
Why would they? Oil prices are doing the job...
Do you have any evidence that Israel is getting "mauled" in Lebanon? I have heard this before ...
Well, that's called israeli censorship. Hezbollah last night stroke Tel Aviv and destroyed a satellite communication facility. So it's not going well for Israel.
I hope you are right but there is no way to verify any of this. The high altitude photos of the allegedly 4 destroyed US missile bases are meaningless to most people. Scott Ritter was telling us a couple of years ago that Hezbollah was seriously pushing back Israel... there's too much desperate propaganda and hopium so without clear photo and video evidence it's all just blah blah I'm afraid.
Well, there a footages filmed at ground level from cars...
Thank you very much for your insight. Longing to hear from you again.
It is very apt that you mention the scandal of the bloody, needless war on Iraq - John Pilger's 2004 book "The New Rulers of the World", has one of his epic essays "Paying the Price", where he details what he found on the scandal at that point.
It has only been even worse since then, but at that point Pilger detailed how everyone who created that war KNEW that both the sanctions before and the war itself would kill hundreds of thousands of innocent people, and that they were literally making up fictional stories of a "threat".
And they still did it anyway. Because their agenda was smash Iraq on behalf of the israeli regime.
A next generation of the same cabal of crooks that will do anything for zionism or at least when paid by zionists, is now running the show. And again they are determined to take the world to hell in a handbasket, just to smash Iran on behalf of the israeli regime.
And the human cost of this war could end up even worse than the alrready huge of lives they destroyed in Iraq and Syria (where BTW they have now installed in power someone they said was a rogue terrorist that they were fighting)
https://costsofwar.watson.brown.edu/paper/blood-and-treasure-united-states-budgetary-costs-and-human-costs-20-years-war-iraq-and-syria
https://costsofwar.watson.brown.edu/papers/how-death-outlives-war
It is time people of the world rose up and rejected all of this. And put these criminals in prison.
Who is holding Pilgers work?
It would be cool if someome would re-publish Pilgers work.
And put things in context and perspective of todays insanity.
Fully agree but I suggest prison is too good a venue for the Epstein transatlantic elites whose debauchery, barbarism and greed is beyond redemption. It is time to forgo mere opposition to oligarchs and the rich they are leading us nowhere except hell on earth! Before our total subjugation by the Palantir AI Surveillance State. Active existential Resistance must ensue to degrade the hyper capitalist Neo liberal state we all Labour under!
excellent work Pascal. thank you
The deepest mistake in essays like this is still treating war mainly as a moral drama.
Modern wars are often decided less by legitimacy language than by system resilience: enforcement cohesion, replacement capacity, and endurance under pressure.
That is why decapitation rarely settles the question it is supposed to settle.
"The war is extremely unpopular in the US - especially among Trump voters who trusted his promise not to start any new wars."
The polls indicate exactly the opposite: At least 80% of Trump voters would do it again. Opposition among Democrats is around 90%, while among Independents it's about 60%.
"So was it the case, as many observers suspected, that the US and Israel were only pretending to negotiate in order to lull the Iranian government into a false sense of security?"
Obviously it was. And they did exactly the same thing immediately before the 12 day war. We can be pretty sure it won't happen again, either with Iran or any other country on earth.
Thanks Pascal for publishing this declaration from a wise and experienced german politician in the EU-parliament.
Germany got colonized after the first World War when they lost it, with an joint effort from the world community.
Japan got decolonised after the second world war when they lost it by an joint effort from China, the USSR and USA.
Israel seems to have changed from a progressive nation building country to an expansionistic colonial building cancer state acting as a ruthless mini-imperium-builder that threatens, bombs, kills, destroys and occupies its neighbours. Their zionism has gone lunatic and cracy and speckled with repulsive hubris. This unlawful new big war i West Asia must be stopped as soon as possible. I think the world needs to de-colonize Israel and their malign patron the USA and some of its vassals.
Israel is now a pain in the ass for all nice and friendly jews around the world and Israel is with its perpetual aggression and leashed brutal wars will promote more anti-semitism. Israel destroys itself and its soul from within.
Free Palestine, Chagos Island, Las Malvinas, Cuprys, Ireland, and man more colonies and get rid of the yankees and bad english intrudements.
Time for a fairer and more peaceful world. Say no to military alliances. They bring you to war. Say yes to peace and no to war like von der Schulenberg says. He knows as a good wise german.
Despite an undoubted level of defence/military capacity, my feeling is that the psychopathically cowardly Trump and Netanyahu along with their satanic circle of influence, are relying more on divine intervention (aka a wing and a prayer) on behalf of the "chosen people(s)" to get them out of the hole they've dug for themselves. It won't be just Europe but the "collective West" that will be paying the price for this act of warmongering lunacy carried out on behalf of the MIC and Apocalypse Now fanclub.
The divine intervention component is no stranger to Israeli strategy; it's how biblical "deterrence" was produced. Yet, it not only can cohabit with political ambitions, they are a couple made in heaven.
This is quite unlike the previous crusade and WMD. After Midnight Hammer and the claim of obliteration, no one believes the administration.
Most believe it is at the insistence of Netanyahu.
$5 a gallon means Republican obliteration in mid-terms.
This article hits all the right notes. In addition, we have the example of Pakistan (who has nukes) and Afghanistan working out their differences via the law of the jungle, not via the international mechanisms that were supposed to solve such disputes. And yet more significantly, we face a global economic collapse, which appears just around the corner, and anthropogenic climate disaster, what has already been making moves. Soon it will be obvious; the jungle has won.
You will be waiting for the "anthropogenic climate disaster" for an eternity.
The Europeans of various shades incl their descendants in US Canada Australia and New Zealand suffer from hubris
Their reckoning is on going and it is not going to be pleasant at all for them
as an (I hope) averagely rational person I would agree with pretty much everything said here by Michael von der Schulenburg.What does strike me a bit at the moment is an element of Netanyahu's policy in his attack on Iran which I rather thought (as an average simpleton) would have been obvious from the outset - especally in light of Pascal's recent realisation that we may be dealing with a war conducted to some extent by religious fanatics. Surely, viewed from the apocalyptic standppoint, the obvious trend in Israeli polcy would be that by attacking a country that they knew full well would be able to relaliate in a way which could do extraordinary harm to the Israeli state (or maybe the Israeli leaders haven't heard, or weren't listening to, the various, I assume realistic, assessments of Iran's attack capabilities), the situation could be engineered whereby Israel could claim that the only thing that could save them from annhilation would be, no bluffing, to carry out a nuclear strike? I assume Iran, currently, is likely to follow a policy of gradual escalation - assuming their strike capacity is as formidable as many experts seem to think - so presumably the perception that Israel is being annihilated may yet be some time away, but I can't but feel there's a curious silence at the moment about what I should have thought was the most salient point in this whole wretched issue. Maybe by not speaking about it we can hope it'll go away, what do I know?
Well, I am certainly surprised at all the conservative nitpickers who miss the point on this thread.
"a massive surprise missile attack"
I really doubt it was a surprise- they got him in his office. Israel had already assassinated many leaders in Iran and Lebabon. The Iranians may be mad but they are not stupid. I reckon the guy decided to martyr himself and, being who he was, assumed "God" will pardon him for martyring his family as well (assuming any of this is true).
Thank you for all your tireless work, Pascal
Isn't that sort of the plan? The "managed decline" of the west discussed in semi-secret round table groups like the Club of Rome, the Bilderberg group, the World Economic forum, and the Council on Foreign relations. The well connected around the world write books about these subjects. Some of these individuals use "crisis" to further their goals, besides making lots of money, influence, and power. In my humble opinion, the war is being used to further the agenda. Like WW1 and WW2 were used to further an agenda.
One has to admire Iran’s brilliant plan (and perhaps Russia’s and China’s as well) to carry out this great destruction in the GCC (Gulf) countries, it is a masterpiece!
Because now:
1) The GCC will stop trusting the US as before, some may opt to say goodbye!
2) They are already stopping or diminishing their exports => economic decline (or even default) and therefore, a decline in investments in America and Europe
3) With the economic collapse of certain GCC countries there might even be a change of regimes, e.g., Bahrain, which could become friendly to Iran
4) With the destruction of the radars and the infrastructures of the US in the GCC region, US and Israel are now blinded and don’t know when and from where Iran will strike them
5) The Economic burden to the US will exceed $1bn per day which will further increase the US debt
6) For how long will Israel last taking a beating everyday? I read they are almost out of interceptors and missiles go through unobstructed...
7) The US and Israel have already started playing dirty by hitting energy targets and desalination plants in Iran
If Iran hunkers down and does not falter its plan will execute itself automatically