A brilliant synopsis, of the degenerate ruling, monied and political class in Europe… a most poignant literary prose, almost prescient I will add extolling the virtues of the aforementioned demented leaders who mistakenly believe they are right to assail Russia, a superpower and far superior than they will ever, ever be, they and their by comparison minuscule little nations that Russia can not only absorb but swallow whenever it decides for it matters not the shiny new toys they are deluding themselves into creating.
By the time their €800,000,000,000.00 eight hundred billion euro’s has been spent and lost through the endemic corruption that abounds, for this class of chattering demented fools cannot help themselves, cannot resist taking what they consider is their due, after-all leading costs does it not mein Herr, Madam, Senor, Senorita, to lead is burdensome and costs plenty, thus it is only proper that first dibs on such a sum ought be the demented compensating themselves, oh, and their children and children’s children must be catered for as well, after all how burdensome for them being the offspring of such great leaders, the image must be maintained…. hence, there goes at least 20-25% of the €800,000,000,000.00 eight hundred billion euro’s, but at least as grift, noses in the public trough, suckling off of the public teat… that percentage wise it’s still a better deal than they have had to swallow from the corrupt of them all, the Ukrainian cross dressing criminal and his band of Nazi Azov thieves… why should Europeans complain, they’ll understand the bargain had… if they don’t…. As Baerbock would opine, to bad we don’t work for them anyways…
Next will be the realisation they are embarking on such a sunken cost fallacy that the weapons to be acquired, procured, built will never ever position them to be able to challenge their imaginary adversary, Russia, the Russians are to far advanced technologically on a military level as well as tactically to render whatever weaponary actually manifests and ultimately comes off of their drawing boards, delivered out of their abysmally slow production lines to the equally moribund Generals who like their forebears, have again proven their complete insouciance whilst if at all possible also contemporaneously displaying a real lack of cognisance of effective modern military doctrine, unable to adapt, unlike their Russian equivalents and even the Russian foot soldiers have shown themselves to be adept at changing and embracing what’s required to win on the modern battlefield, the European flag officers seconded and “snuck” onto the Ukrainian battlefield to surreptitiously ply their craft, have found themselves wanting, their charges being destroyed across the 2,000 km active front, losing in these last months an average of 1600-1800 Kia’s per day on the battlefield.
Thus the U.S led NATO conflict fought on the Ukrainian steppe and again in Europes now familiar Russian hunting grounds of Kursk in Russia, has proven across so many metrics to be a colossal failure, these clowns dressing up to play soldier, servant, oops, Batman or Woman tending their every need and whim in tow, a replay one can imagine of the so called glory days of Europes military when it would trek across vast swathes of Africa, Asia, South America, to all points of the globe, spreading at the point of the sword, atop the thundering hooves of cavalry, latterly at the point of the bayonet, riding atop the hundreds of horses thundering beneath them as they charge along, destroying the indigenous in their path, they who rightfully belong where they do not, yet, spread the good word of progress, of civility they must, for afterall that dear chap is progress.. and we dare not progress say what.. hence, tens of millions murdered, lands plundered, property destroyed, hundreds of millions of lives ruined, all in order they obtained their fix, plundered, stole, raped their way to whatever goal was being pursued, it mattered not, right v wrong, light v darkness, good vs evil, always invoked to wash away their criminality… the stain of the sins both individually and collectively of their turgid actions …
The next iteration will be no different, you have correctly called it, called them, the perpetrators, the criminals … they’ve been called out, this current lot no better than their forebears, Bismarck, Leopold, Napoleon, the Kaiser, Wilhelm, Ferdinand, et al… they’ve whole blood thirsty criminal lot no different to the Scholz’s, Baerbocks, Van der Leyens, Rutte, Merz, Starmer, Johnson, Truss, Sunak, Sanchez, Meloni, the Pole Dancers, they are all the stinking same… they’ve whole blood mindset and thirst for death, destruction, blood, human flesh, still very much evident and uppermost in their collective pea sized minds, yet they espouse peace, the rule of law and that is what makes these fools truly insane and defines them for the miscreants, liars and sociopathic frauds they actually are… pray the citizens of Europe awaken instead of allowing themselves to be led over the cliff as they follow this band of pied pipers… who will do no more than lead them to destruction, to another violent end, I personally pray Russia will so now dominate that in doing so the sweeping victory Russia will enjoy will awaken these fools from the spell, the daze they are in… stopping them before it is to late and they in turn as before need to be stopped… from themselves… just saying
Who believes the unelected show horse Ursula v d Leyen and her Estonian debutante foreign minister will be successful in leading the new Grande Armée to victory?
Origin of NZ might be a key, anyway this style of writing and abundance of ideas and views reminds me of Dr. Jose Rizal and his "The Indolence.." and "Malolos" pamphlets that are able to describe and explain the European intellectual disease so well, that comes from Europe's past as a colonial force, today colonizing itself, and creating the corresponding "social cancer" at home, worse than ever.
The other thing is, there is a complex and partially clandestine and chaotic ping-pong between "atlanticist" cults and European post-religious ideologies. This means, we have to look at the history of "Paperclip", Alan Dulles, mad Gehlen, and the return in some form of the Great Industrialists of the fascist era, that existed forth in various exiles like Argentina, and the USA herself. Or how can Rheinmetall expand into Ukraine with 4 or more projected manufactures? New old "Arbeitspolitik"? US is pretending to walk away from all that, not wanting to be affiliated with losers, but given the complexities, what will they really do? How will it play out between Trump and the traditional permanent bureaucracy that obviously has become very counterproductive, messing up also deeply the US economy. So,, enter DOGE to disrupt all these structures that have become dishonest. But what will emerge then after?
Thank you, I value your response, you pose an interesting question, interestingly following the present market declines here in Australasia and throughout Asia, I had just commented to my wife on the fact this is all the result of to little to late.
The U.S via Trump, who is at least trying something to steady a wayward U.S, a nation that seems to seriously have lost both its very soul and identity.
Recall that it was the entrepreneurs and private equity, investment managers and monied elite owners of U.S corporations that literally post Clinton advancing relations with Dengs China stampeded toward the middle Kingdom en masse, ecstatic they had found a cheap labour source, no longer responsible for paying the wages required and that had been long fought for the American blue collar and unionised workforce, indeed, union officialdom themselves selling out their charges as they, the leadership, took the baubles offered them to look the other way, not resist the off shoring of jobs, this was borne the demise of the a once great global industrial power, the blue collar jobs replaced with higher income tech, supposed professional roles, finance, and wonder of wonder a myriad of service oriented roles, all menial.
Now the U.S decries the very progress and advancement in China, they themselves enabled, the Chinese a quick study and subsequent learners, developed the infrastructure to sustain a great power by developing an education infrastructure that has reach from the very beginning through to the highest qualified disciplines… turning out hundreds of thousands if not in some disciplines millions of graduates each year, think engineers, physicists, software engineering, Astro engineers, physics, design in all aspects.. it is this foundation that today sustains this economy, the Chinese no longer needing the U.S indeed, I have read many a report confirming if they have to, they can completely abandon the U.S as a market in every facet within a 2 year period… the U.S comprising today a moderate 8-10% of Chinas now substantial GDP, thus the U.S has lost all leverage or whatever leverage they thought they had, China as an example has leap frogged the U.S they are the largest manufacturers of Steel, ship building turning out hundreds each year compared the less than 60 each year the U.S in total builds, a far cry from the hundreds once built each year on each coast, worse, the U.S and West, including my own NZ economy, no longer has the workforce with the required skill sets needed to simply start and resurrect these lost industries, it will take decades to recreate what has now been lost… add the fact China has advanced rapidly in high tech, A.I with deep seek but one of many world leading A.I applications all open source created at a fraction of the wasted billions spent the U.S developing the tech… they have mastered the next generation nuclear fusion power generation two plants already in the process of coming on stream, they have developed chip making tech, such that a recent report read has Hollands ASML and Taiwans TSMC likely to become unprofitable within five years, due the Chinese developers having mastered via new tech forced upon them due U.S and E.U sanctions, the Chinese having been sanctioned mastering the technology and in the process advancing development with immediacy vs the once projected 2 decades to develop that tech, given they were happy buying Super computing chips from the Worlds leading suppliers Intel amongst the aforementioned together Korean and Japanese chip manufacturers, who now all suffer and will suffer when the same chips built at scale at far lower cost will hit global markets.. thus another industry, one the U.S wanted to protect at all costs will be dominated the Chinese… in essence serves the U.S right pursuing wrong protectionist punitive policy vs engaging and working with the Chinese, if not now, then soon to be the biggest consumer market in the world..
The Chinese thus are looking globally for trade, Asia, South East, Central and West, Africa, South America… as their future, which those regions actually are, more scope for growth exists in those regions heavily populated, rising middle classes vs the now backwards sliding Western states… in essence a new world beckons, we are living in this change, multipolarity a new paradigm long awaited, much wanted, destruction, zero sum real politik consigned the dust bin of history where it needs to be…
Lastly your advice John and Allan Dulles, operations paper clip, mocking bird, The Club of Rome, Trilateral Commission, together the many Councils, Foreign Relations, Atlantic, Chatham House et al, chief amongst them, Foundations etc.. all responsible the decline now faced, predicate their lust for war, death, lies, obfuscation, destroying, not building, little wonder it feels with all going on especially Javier M!ileis recent disclosures regarding Adolf and most of his advisers settling Argentina before the end of WW2, doing so known to the allies… is sickening, just another lie we’ve lived.. still, there is and exists an awakening and a new world beckons, it’s sad, those in authority do not yet understand nor accept this most simple of facts…
The normal people just want some benefits that used to be,
like watching Hollywood, using cloud systems, buying fancy cars,
enjoying some freedom of speech, being able to travel around all continents,
having a somewhat flatter societal hierarchy among the normies,
American Dream (past..) like by principle of meritocracy, if you are skilled and good you can ascend to high-income class, just like it is now in China, not every top committee/cadre member was born as a princeling, many started poor.
But European oligarchies many seem to seek a position as rich satraps, like Pontius Pilate and his cronies. They will continue dirty work for some US oligarchies and their ideologic bandwagons.
Here, we would need the knowledge of Jose Rizal about the mechanics that create a colonial system and eventually lead to economic failure. This is very old, just new rhetorics, socialogy, mass communication - these tools have been improved, to hide the actual situation, to gaslight major part of the West. All others know what is going on, thanks to their intense and bloody historical struggles against the colonizers.
Great and insightful piece, Pascal. But do you think if push comes to shove, the fragile Germans, Brits, French, etc who religiously take their vacation, have at least three different streaming subscriptions, fret about their Müsli brand and are constantly uploading ‘content’ to self promote their social media accounts are going to willingly be loaded onto trucks, heading to the battlefield?? The average Wolfgang, Pierre and Nigel?? The millennials?? This is a different generation than the ones with which the two previous world wars were fought.. if conscription is back on, they’ll just dodge it and vote out their governments. They can be shitless-ly scared in Germany from the evil Russians but they still expect the Ukrainians/Americans to do the fighting/dying on their behalf.. I mean even after 9/11 you didn’t have the draft and there’s no way you can fight the Russians by just stock piling (useless) weapons without increasing the size of your military. How are you going to get from zero to hero in the case of Britain, par example?? By the time you get around to it (years of disinformation and recruitment drives), you still won’t be able to amass a serious fighting force (that could be the equivalent of filling a lady gaga/taylor swift stadium with fans).. and the world will have moved on (NATO will be a shell of itself and Europeans will be more divided). Look at all the EU projects that have come to nothing after much fanfare and spending. I see this as just another failed EU grand project that will ultimately fail.. the only thing the Europeans will do successfully is further bankrupt their societies.. and sadly, that’s the best we can hope for.
N.B. The Europeans have rendered themselves irrelevant as even a cultural force.. look how they are allowing (more like aiding and abetting) the most vicious colonizers in modern history, the Zionists, and allowing them to perpetrate a gruesome genocide, all the while providing political and diplomatic (not to mention financial) cover.. Financially, militarily, culturally and even spiritually the Europeans are done and will be a footnote in history. The only thing they have is ‘narrative’ and even that is fraying at the edges..
Thank you for expressing my thoughts better than i could myself. I could add that a similar analysis could be made for the USA. Are Americans really going to go to war for Commander In Chief Donald Trump? These people all suffer from Stalingrad Envy. You could also point out that all the eastern fringe of the EU are all having second thoughts about NATO. Which one will volunteer to be the next Ukraine?
I agree re the U.S. It’s all downhill from here.. Trump is no peace lover (he’s a shitty deal maker at best..) and the dems can’t seem to get their heads out of their arses or maybe they just love it there.. the Trump negotiation team (whoever they are) are no match for the Russians if they really want to untangle themselves from Ukraine.. all the while, the world is taking note and the barrier of fear the Americans and west commanded since WWII has been shattered.. no one takes them seriously.
You force the young and unemployed. UK has an 11 year high for young being out of work or education. You cut their benefits so they cannot buy.
It will be those who will go first. Even just to increase the numbers as lowest since before Napoleonic war. The constant talk of toxic masculinity will convince society. National service will sort them out. The irony being the state will train and fund young men to kill. Probably women and children. I believe covid rules showed people do what they are told. All those who want peace can do is try and open peoples eyes to the reality.
But we must be prepared for the insanity of not just those who govern us. But our fellow citizens who allow them to govern.
You mean enforce the draft? Any government that does that will fall.. also, the younguns are not tuning into mainstream media so it will not be easy to indoctrinate them..
Things are happening in the UK. We are the most survellianced country in the world. Protestors are being held under terrorist legislation without being charged as terrorist. General public even interested public dont blink.
True. And Britain, like other European countries, are in decline economically, militarily, culturally, spiritually, etc and they’re quickly becoming irrelevant on the global stage..
Its not about indocrinate. Its making you not think you have a choice. Most people do not think they can change anything. They go from top down not bottom up. Outrage does not translate to action for the vast majority of people.
No, you are wrong. And you should revisit the previous wars fought on the continent (like both world wars). Poverty is a part of it but the animating factor was a sense of pride and moral duty as well as a belief in the cause.
Germany, Britons, France, all have their historical tactics to talk youth into a frenzy of hatred of the arch enemy, and then to take up arms.
There's a lot of nuances in that, but these things don't change, they are based on the lowest instincts.
So it is not clear whether the youth of the internet will resist, given all the psy-tools in social media propaganda and moderation. OCEAN and Cambridge Analytica have roots in the technology of talent shows. You call in for your candidate, and they know in what block which people are living, with this and that spectrum of mindsets and opinions.
European countries flock to Palantir to control their populations, right?
I really think the only way for European capitals to get young people to run to the battlefield is to instate the draft (to which there will be a backlash). In Britain, you see the times, the telegraph, bbc, etc sowing the seeds for war but the problem is none of the 18-24 year old demographic is tuning into those platforms.. the readership of those news outlets are in their 40s and above and you can’t fight a war with them.. even the militarised Israeli society is having trouble resending their soldiers back into the battlefield and their whole raison d’être is a militarised, heavily propagandised state built on aggression and hatred of ‘the enemy’ .. you think the Brits will be able to whip up a warring generation in say, a year or two?? It’s like Trump’s pipe dream of re-industrialising America by imposing tariffs and rebuilding all those factories that left decades ago with NAFTA.. he wants to do it like, next week (just like he wanted to end the Ukraine war in 24 hours 🙄). This takes time and careful planning and it’s almost a fact like gravity is a fact that the British political class doesn’t know how to tie their shoelaces, let alone social engineer anything at that level (no matter how many shiny surveillance tools they play with). They will try their hardest, of course, and bankrupt the state in the process but fail miserably at their main goal of creating a warring population.. they’ll even try to stage a false flag but even then no one from Blighty is going to fight for the Ukrainians nor do they care about WWII residuals or Cold War shit.. and the ‘historical tactics to talk youth into a frenzy’ involves a lot of that stuff from yesteryear that no young lad living on a council estate is going to be interested in.. even Zelensky is having to drag dudes off the street to take them to the meat grinder ‘cause no one is willing to die for him.. ya think British lads will be willing to listen to Starmer?? They may hate Putin (yes, that’s a lot of indoctrination going on there..) but probably just as much as they hate Starmer and the ruling class here..
N.B. Ironically, it was also the Labour gov that convinced folks that Saddam had WMDs.. now, it’s common knowledge that they lied. The governing class has a trust issue with their electorate. They can’t pull off the same hoax within the same generation. For that to succeed the second time around, you need a police state like Zelensky’s (for which the hypothetical British army will be fighting) and not just a heavily surveilled state. Yes, you have suppression of speech and erosion of basic rights which has only gotten worse with tech advancement that allows western govs to act fascistically, as you point out, but you still have to capture the ‘hearts and minds’ for people to ‘willingly’ (the operative word here..) go in their hoards to die.. otherwise, you might get a force of 10k true believers to voluntarily put on their boots and we all know that’s a piss in the river against the formidable and battle hardened Russian army.. I see it more like a recipe for economic disaster more than anything.. much spending will go into making this sausage and nothing but a 💩 will come out..
N.B. 2 Starmer, Macaroon and the other goons know - and they say this loud and clear - that they will only go to war against Russia with American backstopping and security guarantees & the Americans have clearly told them to take a hike (it didn’t take a signal message leak for Vance to profess his disdain for the Europeans.. remember the Wikileaks Hilary email that stated, ‘Fuck Europe’?? ) the Europeans can create as many slush funds for rearmament as they want but they will only go to war if Big Daddy joins them and the latter considers the former a venereal disease.. the end of an era, when Blighty and Uncle Sam had that ‘special relationship’ (if vassalage ever meant ‘special’ but oh well..). All this war hype is just very expensive hand waving so the Europeans can fool themselves into thinking they’re relevant.. the Labour gov will collapse before they can force a single working class lad to take up arms..
My viewpoint is based on watching the young and woke generations in various countries, being influenced by Antifa and NAFO (which today I perceive both as being engineered), and extremely hating Putin and similar old-school leaders, and wanting to become dogooders in a holy fight against the evil.
But I admit that I don't have true statistics about how many people of this class will result to be capable of going to war.
Also, it’s hilarious that Britain/the Europeans are calling their latest escapade ‘Coalition of the Willing’ 😆 they couldn’t even be arsed to come up with a new slogan! Just borrow the same one from the Iraq war, which they lost 🤣
I get that and there has always been some ‘larger purpose’ that one needs to cling to.. but bear in mind that dying for a cause is different and the woke/ younger generations are still driven by hedonistic pursuits (& more instant gratification that the click culture has exploited) that clash with a collective action that touches upon almost spiritual levels (would anyone die for king and country these days?? The royal family is a mockery, governments are like cheap prostitutes and the press is reviled..) . Even the far right nationalists would be hard pressed to fight the evil Russians (on behalf of Ukraine). And the social engineering that happened during the pandemic cannot be repeated (if we have another pandemic, do you think people would line up to take a vaccine and/or trust the gov??) because we have the same lineup of gov actors.. if anything, the chasm between the government and the governed has widened because of Covid, austerity and failed wars..
The most splendid tirade for peace and sanity since the famous Shakespeare shrugged and laid aside his quill for the consolations of the abyss. If the only hope is the victory of the fact based narrative, is there hope?....at least we have known the joy of Pascals sublime expostulation of precise invective against those horrible creatures of deceit and self delusion, who somehow occupy positions of dramatic dominance, much like those of an earlier era, recorded in the malix malorum.
Pascal, all of your work is helpful, but this time I am really scared out of my wits by Ursula's Hitlerian pronouncement based on NOTHING AT ALL but her completely fanatical interpretation of events in recent years. Where is this Russian threat? Has she noticed Ukraine's behaviour at least since 2014? Has she studied that corrupt country's actions and population? Has she even read or listened to any of the thousands of explanations from President Putin? As well as all this, she also encourages Israel Zionists in their genocide of Palestinians, in the name of all of us in the EU who have NO SAY. Germany is dangerously spending to rearm, the UK as well, tossing out the social resources that make the countries of Europe the envy of many others. To what end??????
The question of Ukraine joining NATO is when, not if. And that was agreed by ALL allies, during extensive discussions at the NATO Summits in Bucharest, Vilnius and Washington. I don’t recall members reconvening to ratify any backtracking since then.🧵1/5
"Witkoff's repeating of Kremlin lies about "russian-speakers" wanting to "join Russia" is truly chilling. This is nothing less than carte blanche for Putin's genocidal imperialism. Hearing Americans talk like this should be an electric shock for Europe, not a wakeup call."
We need to withdraw all respect from these sick European elites.
If time, we should research how their mindsets were put together at all, like puppets or Duracell rabbits.
They want to hold back the intellectual development even in the US. Which is the real danger.
Because, at least half of the people in the US are fed up with the insanity, and then with the help of the electorial system and arithmetics, the team that wants to stop it, has won -- to the furious chagrin of those Europeans.
Very difficult to understand the psychology of the Europeans. I’m German born but emigrated to America 60+ years, still have family and friends there and they express a fear of a Russian attack. I have noticed over years that the German news media to much more warmongering and fear instilling, as well as American media, all propaganda. I wonder at times if I am the one who is brainwashed… then I revisit the facts and review my sources to conclude that I am still okay. There was a program on today with Afshen Ratansi Going Underground interviewing a former high official in Switzerland revealing how fearful they are. Link below. I have more thoughts… Thank you Pascal for all your analysis and interviews.
I listened to this interview as well and my only conclusion is that this Swiss man is an idiot! He couldn’t even defend his position and just outright say Russia is threatening to invade Europe, which is why we need to arm ourselves.. he just dithered and blabbed on.. it was embarrassing to listen to.
What a pity more people do not listen to and read Jacques Baud, Swiss and with background in NATO, UN, but with wonderful understanding of the past and present behaviour of those who rule us. His books are all available and his interviews in French and English (eg dialogue works with Nima every week) well worth hearing.
I follow Col. Baud whenever he gives an interview and agree that he’s a very capable and intelligent analyst that should be listened to. His books are superb and should be read.
JB is my fave. For more than a year I could only find him being interviewed on French speaking shows so I had to constantly repeat the show to understand the context. Now, he is on several English speaking shows regularly.
Jose Rizal lived in Germany for 7 years, studied in Heidelberg, and this was already around 1890s.
He was an intellectual who wanted to research about colonial psychology, that is being used to exploit countries, and oppress cultures.
It is a challenge to transform his words into our times, but I believe he has important answers.
Two answers are 1. the notion of "social cancer" and 2. "smart shaming". You will find a lot about that online.
This is about distrust and loathing among sectors of society, and undermining of critical thinking and of speaking out.
Germans often speak too much with too little content, but with circular logics and self-fulfilling pessimistic prophecies. They are extreme dogooders, knowing what is good mainly from the powers that be, rarely questioning them. Ostracising of heterodox views currently is totally rampant.
Your assessment is correct but can you think of an approach that would force the media and the useless politicians to stop telling lies and be rational? After all, nobody is actually threatening any of the European countries and what happened in the Ukraine was brought about by the Americans who apart from a period of 17 years have conducted wars of aggression against other countries since the foundation of the USA. War has always been big business for the US and it is not a concept that the stupid Europeans should copy. One problem, though, is the low intellectual level of the European politicians and it may, therefore, be a good idea to establish new forms of decision making.
What European voters think and do, and what European politicians think and do, are two different things. Most European voters don't want war. Most European politicians do.
It became clear in december 2024, when the EU published an opinion poll that showed that public support for the war in Ukraine is waning all over Europe. In my own country, Denmark, which officially is among the most warmongering of the EU members, only 47% of the population supported the continuation of war in Ukraine. The rest - the majority - either was against support for the war or didn't care. 47% is still a big number, but half a year earlier the supporters comprised 63%. So support is clearly waning.
What is truly remarkable is, that in spite of this diminishing public support for the war effort, no political party in Denmark reflects this shift in public opinion. No politicians - zero, zilch - argues for diplomacy. All politicians, with no exceptions, from the far right over the centre to the far left, want to spend more money on military hardware. There is a discussion of HOW to pay for this policy, but no discussion at all of IF we should do so. So if you, as a Dane, wish to utilize your democratic right to vote against the war effort, there is noone to vote for.
Europeans DO NOT support the war in Ukraine, but European politicians DO. Most Europeans do not fear the Russians, in spite of the massive psyops run by the legacy media to make us think, that we do. Democracy is at stake, but not in the way we are told. It is not the far right, that threatens democracy, nor the far left, but instead the professionalized political class, who occupies the liberal centre.
Authoritarianism and fascism in our time will not come neither from the right nor from the left, but from the political centre. The lack of democratic accountability is no longer just a feature of the EU, it has now become the modus operandi of all the member states.
Well of all Europeans, the Russians more than anyone else remember their history and should realize history is repeating 100 years later. Russia is currently in the midst of a civil war with outside interference once again. Only this time it is not to remove a monarch but to save the federation from those who seek to break it apart once again.
Europeans are so transfixed on their hatred of Russians they are unable to see the reality of the European geopolitical situation within. Germany is going into a recession faced by a militarized Poland on its Eastern border and a nuclear capable France on the western borders with the most capable army in western Europe. The US is withdrawing from Europe as the big brother stopping the toddler from tearing each other apart. While at the same time the possibility of a recession in the US threatens to destroy the western financial system upon which Europe depends 1929 anyone oh no correction 2029. The Dutch, Belgians and Luxembourg should be very concerned as when elephants fight it's the ants who get trampled. Did Europe find the answer to the German question as history shows it may again be asked especially at Russia's behest. One last point Russia is supplying Belarus with nuclear weapons and soon Oreshnics anyone consider why? Russia needs a land connection with Kaliningrad from Belarus and Lukashenko does need assurance to allow any attack on NATO territory even a weakened NATO.
It going from bad to worse and quickly. I remember a time when if asked where I was from, then I would be able to say, with some pride, that I was European … that time is over, and have for me been over for a couple of years. Yet the last few weeks have unfortunately taken this to another level.
One of my many favourite thinkers is Kishore Mahbubani. His perspective as a voice and commentator on world affairs are refreshingly coming from outside the West. He was one of the first none western authors I read. Throughout his books he often comment on or provide unsolicited advice to both the EU and the US, but sadly so fare no one have listened.
One of his books “The ASEAN Miracle: A Catalyst for Peace” is well worth a read.
I’m from Canada, I liked your comments and looked up Kishore Mahbubani. It turns out that I have read some of his stuff before. He wrote a very interesting article about the possibility of war in the western pacific between… well, you know who. Anyway, he wrote about the first island chain, the second island chain and how when the amerikan military does hypothetical war games the end result is always the same: the amerikans lose. Nevertheless, they continue their belligerence against China. Now that I can almost spell his name from memory I’m going to search for more of his writings, thanks to your post! And btw, his outlook, as you’ve stated, as a non-westerner is extremely refreshing. All the best
Kishore Mahbubani's short book "Has the West Lost it" written I believe in 2016 at this point reads like a prophecy. In it he layed out all the pitfalls the west would face and how to avoid them but through hubris, and like a very inexperienced driver on a road with potholes, the west did not fail to miss all the pitfalls and followed none of his advice. His books in the West are heavily criticized, and it would be advised to read his books before reading the reviews that generally advise against reading his books which are extremely good geopolitical commentary.
The eu and uk elites are completely corrupt, spoiled little shits and their "citizenry" appear to be as stupid as Americans. They deserve all of the pain and misery that is coming their way.
In the UK most people I know are simply totally brainwashed by the BBC and other mainstream media. I’ve tried in vain to have conversations with them about what is happening in the world but just get Starmer is doing his best ( er wtf? ) and Russia is about to bomb us. It’s like being surrounded by a bunch of Zombies.
The last 20 years have been that way here in the US and not just about foreign policy. Things are improving somewhat but only economic depression will completely break the brainwashing.
Jingoism aside, the current crop of leaders were raised to promote subordination to the US. While US will be happy to have EU "keep Russia busy", the US will certainly *not* be interested in EU (or for that matter UK) having a freestanding defense-industry in proportion to their population.
There will be some rearmament, enough to equip the youth of Poland or Romania on a suicide mission. But the bulk of the political impetus will be used for familiar neoliberal austerity, and the funds raised will be looted by corporates - many of which will be US corporates. It also accelerates the self-reinforcing pattern of unwise policy discrediting the centrist political parties, and the centrist parties responding to political decline with gaslighting and increasingly undemocratic tactics. But their various nationalist replacements, who are likely to have their chance soon, have consistently been just as corrupt and just as beholden to US sponsors.
The last big element concerning the EU, is that the US will be entering a phase of domestic investment (won't work to restore primacy, but they'll try), and this requires capital flows (including in its tangible forms, meaning fancy equipment) to be increased in the direction of the US. And manipulating capital flows is the power the US will continue to have for a while, even as tangible capabilities decline. For EU, this means some combination of relative price increases or relative real interest rate increases in the continent, neither of which is helpful in the current situation.
The European war fever has the political function to cover up all these unfavorable trends. But the US retrenchment under Trump is also pretty phony. For now they're pivoting to Iran and Yemen, but that will prove a tough nut to crack. They'll settle for harming the weak, as they always do. Simultaneously, Trump's domestic enemies are also waiting for a mistake, and many are willing to trash the G7 economy for that reason. There will be plenty of chaos all around.
Yes, and then Chi - na. The US marches on with no infrastructure, no money, the Pentagon with little inventory or accounting skills and field incompetent 'showroom weapons' but . . . nukes and a State Dept. still with a will to use them? The nation of laws democracy that mandates democracy in others and breaks laws to make them. Great Again. Or Monroe Doctrine, when were we not?
Re China - seems to me Trump admin is focused on Yemen/Iran. Trade war is going to go at medium level I think, but given the administration’s more pressing priorities (ie helping Netanyahu, and fighting off domestic enemies), Washington is in no shape to threaten measures beyond tariffs and export restrictions. Would be far too easy for Beijing to use Iran or Yemen or even Iraq as a conduit for enforcing discipline on the China hawk faction among Trump’s coalition. Both US Navy and the US ground forces in the region (incl Iraq, Syria) are basically hostages to that potential move.
P.S. What 'domestic enemies'? How many are committed to a truer picture of rule of law democracy and have the backbone, knowledge, and skills to speak up?
Think where that phrase originated and how it planted itself in brains. And how far that concept gets carried. Like 'unprovoked' trying to cover provoked or deterrence meaning assassination or attack. Who defines democracy these days, or rule of law? What's rules based order? Or terrorism (including domestic) that condemns lawful resistance?
Any more I think every discussion or report needs to define PRECISELY what it means by the terms it uses. Words matter. Propaganda 101.
Trump's "domestic enemies" = people or identifiable groups who refuse to accept him being in power. As opposed to "pollitical opposition" (ie, Democrats in the most broad sense) who would - in theory as the term traditionally meant - would fight him in the election but willing to let him govern after getting elected. Also, no commitment to any principle required to qualify as either 'political opposition' or 'enemies'.
Not a fan of either major US party, to put it mildly. Think they're both evil enough for life sentences of the leadership and policymaking staff, at a bare minimum.
Thanks, now I see what you're saying and I agree. My thoughts were of the front line staff trying to carry on despite management's ignorant, uncaring, and dissociated slash and burn. Obama at least could read the manual. I don't think Biden and the 2 DJs could have cared less how to actually govern or lead. Biden all about backroom politics, and DJ with a baseball bat. Funny how the agencies with the most 'problems' per DOGE and cabinet happen to be those most charged with public service. No doubt now who runs government. The gloves are off, the corporate coup is on.
Yep, it was downhill and fast ever since the Patriot act. The Biden group happened to be here as senior level enabler of the machinery of state control, every step of the way. To whatever extent Trump's group has repressive tendencies - I'm afraid we're going to find out - they were handed the whole toolset for it on a silver platter.
I would point out a couple of finer distinctions though.
While the European populace succumed to the barrage of "slava" and "poor suffering white European people" public PR manipulaiton initiially, public polls taken by the European Council over the past 2 years, have showed a steadily declining support for the war among European people. To the point that they stopped publishing the polls by autumn last year!
Now there is the flag waving, but already people are asking qiuestions about where is this money to come from. Especially since the "we must prepare for war choir" is not singing "tax the rich". So one has to wonder its all going to come to a crash at a financial reality check even before the wave takes off.
Excellent analysis! And horrible prospects… In addition, some NATO (and non-NATO) countries in the Balkans make military mini-alliances. Albania, Croatia and Kosovo on one side (they invited Bulgaria too), and allegedly Hungary and Serbia think of following suit. The scene is set, and everyone is looking forward to another war.
A brilliant synopsis, of the degenerate ruling, monied and political class in Europe… a most poignant literary prose, almost prescient I will add extolling the virtues of the aforementioned demented leaders who mistakenly believe they are right to assail Russia, a superpower and far superior than they will ever, ever be, they and their by comparison minuscule little nations that Russia can not only absorb but swallow whenever it decides for it matters not the shiny new toys they are deluding themselves into creating.
By the time their €800,000,000,000.00 eight hundred billion euro’s has been spent and lost through the endemic corruption that abounds, for this class of chattering demented fools cannot help themselves, cannot resist taking what they consider is their due, after-all leading costs does it not mein Herr, Madam, Senor, Senorita, to lead is burdensome and costs plenty, thus it is only proper that first dibs on such a sum ought be the demented compensating themselves, oh, and their children and children’s children must be catered for as well, after all how burdensome for them being the offspring of such great leaders, the image must be maintained…. hence, there goes at least 20-25% of the €800,000,000,000.00 eight hundred billion euro’s, but at least as grift, noses in the public trough, suckling off of the public teat… that percentage wise it’s still a better deal than they have had to swallow from the corrupt of them all, the Ukrainian cross dressing criminal and his band of Nazi Azov thieves… why should Europeans complain, they’ll understand the bargain had… if they don’t…. As Baerbock would opine, to bad we don’t work for them anyways…
Next will be the realisation they are embarking on such a sunken cost fallacy that the weapons to be acquired, procured, built will never ever position them to be able to challenge their imaginary adversary, Russia, the Russians are to far advanced technologically on a military level as well as tactically to render whatever weaponary actually manifests and ultimately comes off of their drawing boards, delivered out of their abysmally slow production lines to the equally moribund Generals who like their forebears, have again proven their complete insouciance whilst if at all possible also contemporaneously displaying a real lack of cognisance of effective modern military doctrine, unable to adapt, unlike their Russian equivalents and even the Russian foot soldiers have shown themselves to be adept at changing and embracing what’s required to win on the modern battlefield, the European flag officers seconded and “snuck” onto the Ukrainian battlefield to surreptitiously ply their craft, have found themselves wanting, their charges being destroyed across the 2,000 km active front, losing in these last months an average of 1600-1800 Kia’s per day on the battlefield.
Thus the U.S led NATO conflict fought on the Ukrainian steppe and again in Europes now familiar Russian hunting grounds of Kursk in Russia, has proven across so many metrics to be a colossal failure, these clowns dressing up to play soldier, servant, oops, Batman or Woman tending their every need and whim in tow, a replay one can imagine of the so called glory days of Europes military when it would trek across vast swathes of Africa, Asia, South America, to all points of the globe, spreading at the point of the sword, atop the thundering hooves of cavalry, latterly at the point of the bayonet, riding atop the hundreds of horses thundering beneath them as they charge along, destroying the indigenous in their path, they who rightfully belong where they do not, yet, spread the good word of progress, of civility they must, for afterall that dear chap is progress.. and we dare not progress say what.. hence, tens of millions murdered, lands plundered, property destroyed, hundreds of millions of lives ruined, all in order they obtained their fix, plundered, stole, raped their way to whatever goal was being pursued, it mattered not, right v wrong, light v darkness, good vs evil, always invoked to wash away their criminality… the stain of the sins both individually and collectively of their turgid actions …
The next iteration will be no different, you have correctly called it, called them, the perpetrators, the criminals … they’ve been called out, this current lot no better than their forebears, Bismarck, Leopold, Napoleon, the Kaiser, Wilhelm, Ferdinand, et al… they’ve whole blood thirsty criminal lot no different to the Scholz’s, Baerbocks, Van der Leyens, Rutte, Merz, Starmer, Johnson, Truss, Sunak, Sanchez, Meloni, the Pole Dancers, they are all the stinking same… they’ve whole blood mindset and thirst for death, destruction, blood, human flesh, still very much evident and uppermost in their collective pea sized minds, yet they espouse peace, the rule of law and that is what makes these fools truly insane and defines them for the miscreants, liars and sociopathic frauds they actually are… pray the citizens of Europe awaken instead of allowing themselves to be led over the cliff as they follow this band of pied pipers… who will do no more than lead them to destruction, to another violent end, I personally pray Russia will so now dominate that in doing so the sweeping victory Russia will enjoy will awaken these fools from the spell, the daze they are in… stopping them before it is to late and they in turn as before need to be stopped… from themselves… just saying
Kia Kaha (stay strong) from New Zealand
Thanks a lot for the substantial comment and appreciation!
I just want to add to your list of bloodthirsty criminals the Estonian Russophobe chief of the EU foreign service Kaja Kallas
Who believes the unelected show horse Ursula v d Leyen and her Estonian debutante foreign minister will be successful in leading the new Grande Armée to victory?
Origin of NZ might be a key, anyway this style of writing and abundance of ideas and views reminds me of Dr. Jose Rizal and his "The Indolence.." and "Malolos" pamphlets that are able to describe and explain the European intellectual disease so well, that comes from Europe's past as a colonial force, today colonizing itself, and creating the corresponding "social cancer" at home, worse than ever.
The other thing is, there is a complex and partially clandestine and chaotic ping-pong between "atlanticist" cults and European post-religious ideologies. This means, we have to look at the history of "Paperclip", Alan Dulles, mad Gehlen, and the return in some form of the Great Industrialists of the fascist era, that existed forth in various exiles like Argentina, and the USA herself. Or how can Rheinmetall expand into Ukraine with 4 or more projected manufactures? New old "Arbeitspolitik"? US is pretending to walk away from all that, not wanting to be affiliated with losers, but given the complexities, what will they really do? How will it play out between Trump and the traditional permanent bureaucracy that obviously has become very counterproductive, messing up also deeply the US economy. So,, enter DOGE to disrupt all these structures that have become dishonest. But what will emerge then after?
Thank you, I value your response, you pose an interesting question, interestingly following the present market declines here in Australasia and throughout Asia, I had just commented to my wife on the fact this is all the result of to little to late.
The U.S via Trump, who is at least trying something to steady a wayward U.S, a nation that seems to seriously have lost both its very soul and identity.
Recall that it was the entrepreneurs and private equity, investment managers and monied elite owners of U.S corporations that literally post Clinton advancing relations with Dengs China stampeded toward the middle Kingdom en masse, ecstatic they had found a cheap labour source, no longer responsible for paying the wages required and that had been long fought for the American blue collar and unionised workforce, indeed, union officialdom themselves selling out their charges as they, the leadership, took the baubles offered them to look the other way, not resist the off shoring of jobs, this was borne the demise of the a once great global industrial power, the blue collar jobs replaced with higher income tech, supposed professional roles, finance, and wonder of wonder a myriad of service oriented roles, all menial.
Now the U.S decries the very progress and advancement in China, they themselves enabled, the Chinese a quick study and subsequent learners, developed the infrastructure to sustain a great power by developing an education infrastructure that has reach from the very beginning through to the highest qualified disciplines… turning out hundreds of thousands if not in some disciplines millions of graduates each year, think engineers, physicists, software engineering, Astro engineers, physics, design in all aspects.. it is this foundation that today sustains this economy, the Chinese no longer needing the U.S indeed, I have read many a report confirming if they have to, they can completely abandon the U.S as a market in every facet within a 2 year period… the U.S comprising today a moderate 8-10% of Chinas now substantial GDP, thus the U.S has lost all leverage or whatever leverage they thought they had, China as an example has leap frogged the U.S they are the largest manufacturers of Steel, ship building turning out hundreds each year compared the less than 60 each year the U.S in total builds, a far cry from the hundreds once built each year on each coast, worse, the U.S and West, including my own NZ economy, no longer has the workforce with the required skill sets needed to simply start and resurrect these lost industries, it will take decades to recreate what has now been lost… add the fact China has advanced rapidly in high tech, A.I with deep seek but one of many world leading A.I applications all open source created at a fraction of the wasted billions spent the U.S developing the tech… they have mastered the next generation nuclear fusion power generation two plants already in the process of coming on stream, they have developed chip making tech, such that a recent report read has Hollands ASML and Taiwans TSMC likely to become unprofitable within five years, due the Chinese developers having mastered via new tech forced upon them due U.S and E.U sanctions, the Chinese having been sanctioned mastering the technology and in the process advancing development with immediacy vs the once projected 2 decades to develop that tech, given they were happy buying Super computing chips from the Worlds leading suppliers Intel amongst the aforementioned together Korean and Japanese chip manufacturers, who now all suffer and will suffer when the same chips built at scale at far lower cost will hit global markets.. thus another industry, one the U.S wanted to protect at all costs will be dominated the Chinese… in essence serves the U.S right pursuing wrong protectionist punitive policy vs engaging and working with the Chinese, if not now, then soon to be the biggest consumer market in the world..
The Chinese thus are looking globally for trade, Asia, South East, Central and West, Africa, South America… as their future, which those regions actually are, more scope for growth exists in those regions heavily populated, rising middle classes vs the now backwards sliding Western states… in essence a new world beckons, we are living in this change, multipolarity a new paradigm long awaited, much wanted, destruction, zero sum real politik consigned the dust bin of history where it needs to be…
Lastly your advice John and Allan Dulles, operations paper clip, mocking bird, The Club of Rome, Trilateral Commission, together the many Councils, Foreign Relations, Atlantic, Chatham House et al, chief amongst them, Foundations etc.. all responsible the decline now faced, predicate their lust for war, death, lies, obfuscation, destroying, not building, little wonder it feels with all going on especially Javier M!ileis recent disclosures regarding Adolf and most of his advisers settling Argentina before the end of WW2, doing so known to the allies… is sickening, just another lie we’ve lived.. still, there is and exists an awakening and a new world beckons, it’s sad, those in authority do not yet understand nor accept this most simple of facts…
Kia Kaha from New Zealand
Ahh… you mean that Europa wants to emulate the USA…
.-)
The normal people just want some benefits that used to be,
like watching Hollywood, using cloud systems, buying fancy cars,
enjoying some freedom of speech, being able to travel around all continents,
having a somewhat flatter societal hierarchy among the normies,
American Dream (past..) like by principle of meritocracy, if you are skilled and good you can ascend to high-income class, just like it is now in China, not every top committee/cadre member was born as a princeling, many started poor.
But European oligarchies many seem to seek a position as rich satraps, like Pontius Pilate and his cronies. They will continue dirty work for some US oligarchies and their ideologic bandwagons.
Here, we would need the knowledge of Jose Rizal about the mechanics that create a colonial system and eventually lead to economic failure. This is very old, just new rhetorics, socialogy, mass communication - these tools have been improved, to hide the actual situation, to gaslight major part of the West. All others know what is going on, thanks to their intense and bloody historical struggles against the colonizers.
Great and insightful piece, Pascal. But do you think if push comes to shove, the fragile Germans, Brits, French, etc who religiously take their vacation, have at least three different streaming subscriptions, fret about their Müsli brand and are constantly uploading ‘content’ to self promote their social media accounts are going to willingly be loaded onto trucks, heading to the battlefield?? The average Wolfgang, Pierre and Nigel?? The millennials?? This is a different generation than the ones with which the two previous world wars were fought.. if conscription is back on, they’ll just dodge it and vote out their governments. They can be shitless-ly scared in Germany from the evil Russians but they still expect the Ukrainians/Americans to do the fighting/dying on their behalf.. I mean even after 9/11 you didn’t have the draft and there’s no way you can fight the Russians by just stock piling (useless) weapons without increasing the size of your military. How are you going to get from zero to hero in the case of Britain, par example?? By the time you get around to it (years of disinformation and recruitment drives), you still won’t be able to amass a serious fighting force (that could be the equivalent of filling a lady gaga/taylor swift stadium with fans).. and the world will have moved on (NATO will be a shell of itself and Europeans will be more divided). Look at all the EU projects that have come to nothing after much fanfare and spending. I see this as just another failed EU grand project that will ultimately fail.. the only thing the Europeans will do successfully is further bankrupt their societies.. and sadly, that’s the best we can hope for.
N.B. The Europeans have rendered themselves irrelevant as even a cultural force.. look how they are allowing (more like aiding and abetting) the most vicious colonizers in modern history, the Zionists, and allowing them to perpetrate a gruesome genocide, all the while providing political and diplomatic (not to mention financial) cover.. Financially, militarily, culturally and even spiritually the Europeans are done and will be a footnote in history. The only thing they have is ‘narrative’ and even that is fraying at the edges..
Thank you for expressing my thoughts better than i could myself. I could add that a similar analysis could be made for the USA. Are Americans really going to go to war for Commander In Chief Donald Trump? These people all suffer from Stalingrad Envy. You could also point out that all the eastern fringe of the EU are all having second thoughts about NATO. Which one will volunteer to be the next Ukraine?
I agree re the U.S. It’s all downhill from here.. Trump is no peace lover (he’s a shitty deal maker at best..) and the dems can’t seem to get their heads out of their arses or maybe they just love it there.. the Trump negotiation team (whoever they are) are no match for the Russians if they really want to untangle themselves from Ukraine.. all the while, the world is taking note and the barrier of fear the Americans and west commanded since WWII has been shattered.. no one takes them seriously.
Trump isn't interested in a war for the effete Europe. I don't think he even likes most of the Eurocrats.
You force the young and unemployed. UK has an 11 year high for young being out of work or education. You cut their benefits so they cannot buy.
It will be those who will go first. Even just to increase the numbers as lowest since before Napoleonic war. The constant talk of toxic masculinity will convince society. National service will sort them out. The irony being the state will train and fund young men to kill. Probably women and children. I believe covid rules showed people do what they are told. All those who want peace can do is try and open peoples eyes to the reality.
But we must be prepared for the insanity of not just those who govern us. But our fellow citizens who allow them to govern.
You mean enforce the draft? Any government that does that will fall.. also, the younguns are not tuning into mainstream media so it will not be easy to indoctrinate them..
Things are happening in the UK. We are the most survellianced country in the world. Protestors are being held under terrorist legislation without being charged as terrorist. General public even interested public dont blink.
True. And Britain, like other European countries, are in decline economically, militarily, culturally, spiritually, etc and they’re quickly becoming irrelevant on the global stage..
When you need your dinner.
Thats what sent people to fight
Its not about indocrinate. Its making you not think you have a choice. Most people do not think they can change anything. They go from top down not bottom up. Outrage does not translate to action for the vast majority of people.
No, you are wrong. And you should revisit the previous wars fought on the continent (like both world wars). Poverty is a part of it but the animating factor was a sense of pride and moral duty as well as a belief in the cause.
I think we should make Patrick McGoohan and his show "The Prisoner" popular again!
Germany, Britons, France, all have their historical tactics to talk youth into a frenzy of hatred of the arch enemy, and then to take up arms.
There's a lot of nuances in that, but these things don't change, they are based on the lowest instincts.
So it is not clear whether the youth of the internet will resist, given all the psy-tools in social media propaganda and moderation. OCEAN and Cambridge Analytica have roots in the technology of talent shows. You call in for your candidate, and they know in what block which people are living, with this and that spectrum of mindsets and opinions.
European countries flock to Palantir to control their populations, right?
I really think the only way for European capitals to get young people to run to the battlefield is to instate the draft (to which there will be a backlash). In Britain, you see the times, the telegraph, bbc, etc sowing the seeds for war but the problem is none of the 18-24 year old demographic is tuning into those platforms.. the readership of those news outlets are in their 40s and above and you can’t fight a war with them.. even the militarised Israeli society is having trouble resending their soldiers back into the battlefield and their whole raison d’être is a militarised, heavily propagandised state built on aggression and hatred of ‘the enemy’ .. you think the Brits will be able to whip up a warring generation in say, a year or two?? It’s like Trump’s pipe dream of re-industrialising America by imposing tariffs and rebuilding all those factories that left decades ago with NAFTA.. he wants to do it like, next week (just like he wanted to end the Ukraine war in 24 hours 🙄). This takes time and careful planning and it’s almost a fact like gravity is a fact that the British political class doesn’t know how to tie their shoelaces, let alone social engineer anything at that level (no matter how many shiny surveillance tools they play with). They will try their hardest, of course, and bankrupt the state in the process but fail miserably at their main goal of creating a warring population.. they’ll even try to stage a false flag but even then no one from Blighty is going to fight for the Ukrainians nor do they care about WWII residuals or Cold War shit.. and the ‘historical tactics to talk youth into a frenzy’ involves a lot of that stuff from yesteryear that no young lad living on a council estate is going to be interested in.. even Zelensky is having to drag dudes off the street to take them to the meat grinder ‘cause no one is willing to die for him.. ya think British lads will be willing to listen to Starmer?? They may hate Putin (yes, that’s a lot of indoctrination going on there..) but probably just as much as they hate Starmer and the ruling class here..
N.B. Ironically, it was also the Labour gov that convinced folks that Saddam had WMDs.. now, it’s common knowledge that they lied. The governing class has a trust issue with their electorate. They can’t pull off the same hoax within the same generation. For that to succeed the second time around, you need a police state like Zelensky’s (for which the hypothetical British army will be fighting) and not just a heavily surveilled state. Yes, you have suppression of speech and erosion of basic rights which has only gotten worse with tech advancement that allows western govs to act fascistically, as you point out, but you still have to capture the ‘hearts and minds’ for people to ‘willingly’ (the operative word here..) go in their hoards to die.. otherwise, you might get a force of 10k true believers to voluntarily put on their boots and we all know that’s a piss in the river against the formidable and battle hardened Russian army.. I see it more like a recipe for economic disaster more than anything.. much spending will go into making this sausage and nothing but a 💩 will come out..
N.B. 2 Starmer, Macaroon and the other goons know - and they say this loud and clear - that they will only go to war against Russia with American backstopping and security guarantees & the Americans have clearly told them to take a hike (it didn’t take a signal message leak for Vance to profess his disdain for the Europeans.. remember the Wikileaks Hilary email that stated, ‘Fuck Europe’?? ) the Europeans can create as many slush funds for rearmament as they want but they will only go to war if Big Daddy joins them and the latter considers the former a venereal disease.. the end of an era, when Blighty and Uncle Sam had that ‘special relationship’ (if vassalage ever meant ‘special’ but oh well..). All this war hype is just very expensive hand waving so the Europeans can fool themselves into thinking they’re relevant.. the Labour gov will collapse before they can force a single working class lad to take up arms..
My viewpoint is based on watching the young and woke generations in various countries, being influenced by Antifa and NAFO (which today I perceive both as being engineered), and extremely hating Putin and similar old-school leaders, and wanting to become dogooders in a holy fight against the evil.
But I admit that I don't have true statistics about how many people of this class will result to be capable of going to war.
Also, it’s hilarious that Britain/the Europeans are calling their latest escapade ‘Coalition of the Willing’ 😆 they couldn’t even be arsed to come up with a new slogan! Just borrow the same one from the Iraq war, which they lost 🤣
I get that and there has always been some ‘larger purpose’ that one needs to cling to.. but bear in mind that dying for a cause is different and the woke/ younger generations are still driven by hedonistic pursuits (& more instant gratification that the click culture has exploited) that clash with a collective action that touches upon almost spiritual levels (would anyone die for king and country these days?? The royal family is a mockery, governments are like cheap prostitutes and the press is reviled..) . Even the far right nationalists would be hard pressed to fight the evil Russians (on behalf of Ukraine). And the social engineering that happened during the pandemic cannot be repeated (if we have another pandemic, do you think people would line up to take a vaccine and/or trust the gov??) because we have the same lineup of gov actors.. if anything, the chasm between the government and the governed has widened because of Covid, austerity and failed wars..
The most splendid tirade for peace and sanity since the famous Shakespeare shrugged and laid aside his quill for the consolations of the abyss. If the only hope is the victory of the fact based narrative, is there hope?....at least we have known the joy of Pascals sublime expostulation of precise invective against those horrible creatures of deceit and self delusion, who somehow occupy positions of dramatic dominance, much like those of an earlier era, recorded in the malix malorum.
Pascal, all of your work is helpful, but this time I am really scared out of my wits by Ursula's Hitlerian pronouncement based on NOTHING AT ALL but her completely fanatical interpretation of events in recent years. Where is this Russian threat? Has she noticed Ukraine's behaviour at least since 2014? Has she studied that corrupt country's actions and population? Has she even read or listened to any of the thousands of explanations from President Putin? As well as all this, she also encourages Israel Zionists in their genocide of Palestinians, in the name of all of us in the EU who have NO SAY. Germany is dangerously spending to rearm, the UK as well, tossing out the social resources that make the countries of Europe the envy of many others. To what end??????
Thanks to the author for a hard-hitting and perceptive assessment.
Europe: the most dangerous are the politicians, and together with them the social media, and mainstream media.
The misinformation, the propaganda and the censorship or blocking are overwhelming.
On Bluesky Gabrielius Landsbergis published yesterday:
Example 1:
Gabrielius Landsbergis
@glandsbergis.bsky.social
The question of Ukraine joining NATO is when, not if. And that was agreed by ALL allies, during extensive discussions at the NATO Summits in Bucharest, Vilnius and Washington. I don’t recall members reconvening to ratify any backtracking since then.🧵1/5
https://bsky.app/profile/glandsbergis.bsky.social/post/3lkg65ywmmk2d
My comment:
So: if all lie about the why not, the lie is legal?
The why is registered on history's timeline.
All is known. Also IF joining, WHAT the consequences are.
You lie about Russian imperialism in another post. If: US is also an imperialist, and EU as well.
Not 1 European voted for the EU president.
https://bsky.app/profile/ajmjanssen.bsky.social/post/3lkzrvpdao22b
Example 2:
Gabrielius Landsbergis
@glandsbergis.bsky.social
"Witkoff's repeating of Kremlin lies about "russian-speakers" wanting to "join Russia" is truly chilling. This is nothing less than carte blanche for Putin's genocidal imperialism. Hearing Americans talk like this should be an electric shock for Europe, not a wakeup call."
https://bsky.app/profile/glandsbergis.bsky.social/post/3lkxeuxkaks2i
My comment:
Yes, let us talk about genocides.
EU and USA have been and are participating in the most recent genocide: Gaza.
For the facts about South East Ukraine: read and study the scientific research by Ivan Katchanovski.
The facts are shocking, all is proven. It was and is Kiev, USA + EU who are behind it.
Could not copy the link to the reply, since I was blocked already.
We need to withdraw all respect from these sick European elites.
If time, we should research how their mindsets were put together at all, like puppets or Duracell rabbits.
They want to hold back the intellectual development even in the US. Which is the real danger.
Because, at least half of the people in the US are fed up with the insanity, and then with the help of the electorial system and arithmetics, the team that wants to stop it, has won -- to the furious chagrin of those Europeans.
Very difficult to understand the psychology of the Europeans. I’m German born but emigrated to America 60+ years, still have family and friends there and they express a fear of a Russian attack. I have noticed over years that the German news media to much more warmongering and fear instilling, as well as American media, all propaganda. I wonder at times if I am the one who is brainwashed… then I revisit the facts and review my sources to conclude that I am still okay. There was a program on today with Afshen Ratansi Going Underground interviewing a former high official in Switzerland revealing how fearful they are. Link below. I have more thoughts… Thank you Pascal for all your analysis and interviews.
https://youtu.be/DkDmIcNukq0?si=Of7X1efU_oB9T5Lk
.-)
I listened to this interview as well and my only conclusion is that this Swiss man is an idiot! He couldn’t even defend his position and just outright say Russia is threatening to invade Europe, which is why we need to arm ourselves.. he just dithered and blabbed on.. it was embarrassing to listen to.
What a pity more people do not listen to and read Jacques Baud, Swiss and with background in NATO, UN, but with wonderful understanding of the past and present behaviour of those who rule us. His books are all available and his interviews in French and English (eg dialogue works with Nima every week) well worth hearing.
I follow Col. Baud whenever he gives an interview and agree that he’s a very capable and intelligent analyst that should be listened to. His books are superb and should be read.
JB is my fave. For more than a year I could only find him being interviewed on French speaking shows so I had to constantly repeat the show to understand the context. Now, he is on several English speaking shows regularly.
Jose Rizal lived in Germany for 7 years, studied in Heidelberg, and this was already around 1890s.
He was an intellectual who wanted to research about colonial psychology, that is being used to exploit countries, and oppress cultures.
It is a challenge to transform his words into our times, but I believe he has important answers.
Two answers are 1. the notion of "social cancer" and 2. "smart shaming". You will find a lot about that online.
This is about distrust and loathing among sectors of society, and undermining of critical thinking and of speaking out.
Germans often speak too much with too little content, but with circular logics and self-fulfilling pessimistic prophecies. They are extreme dogooders, knowing what is good mainly from the powers that be, rarely questioning them. Ostracising of heterodox views currently is totally rampant.
Thank you, Pascal. Good to see clear reasoning. Don’t understand how and why so few in Europe get it. Recently I noticed Russian war point of view article about Europe, I found it insightful, please let us know what do you think. https://open.substack.com/pub/maratkhairullin/p/in-europe-if-youre-sitting-in-the?r=1vezta&utm_medium=ios
Your assessment is correct but can you think of an approach that would force the media and the useless politicians to stop telling lies and be rational? After all, nobody is actually threatening any of the European countries and what happened in the Ukraine was brought about by the Americans who apart from a period of 17 years have conducted wars of aggression against other countries since the foundation of the USA. War has always been big business for the US and it is not a concept that the stupid Europeans should copy. One problem, though, is the low intellectual level of the European politicians and it may, therefore, be a good idea to establish new forms of decision making.
What European voters think and do, and what European politicians think and do, are two different things. Most European voters don't want war. Most European politicians do.
It became clear in december 2024, when the EU published an opinion poll that showed that public support for the war in Ukraine is waning all over Europe. In my own country, Denmark, which officially is among the most warmongering of the EU members, only 47% of the population supported the continuation of war in Ukraine. The rest - the majority - either was against support for the war or didn't care. 47% is still a big number, but half a year earlier the supporters comprised 63%. So support is clearly waning.
What is truly remarkable is, that in spite of this diminishing public support for the war effort, no political party in Denmark reflects this shift in public opinion. No politicians - zero, zilch - argues for diplomacy. All politicians, with no exceptions, from the far right over the centre to the far left, want to spend more money on military hardware. There is a discussion of HOW to pay for this policy, but no discussion at all of IF we should do so. So if you, as a Dane, wish to utilize your democratic right to vote against the war effort, there is noone to vote for.
Europeans DO NOT support the war in Ukraine, but European politicians DO. Most Europeans do not fear the Russians, in spite of the massive psyops run by the legacy media to make us think, that we do. Democracy is at stake, but not in the way we are told. It is not the far right, that threatens democracy, nor the far left, but instead the professionalized political class, who occupies the liberal centre.
Authoritarianism and fascism in our time will not come neither from the right nor from the left, but from the political centre. The lack of democratic accountability is no longer just a feature of the EU, it has now become the modus operandi of all the member states.
Take a look at the numbers:
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/51210-with-trump-re-elected-what-do-europeans-think-is-in-store-for-ukraine
I guess the spectrum of opinions between normies and elites is approaching 1789 again.
Well of all Europeans, the Russians more than anyone else remember their history and should realize history is repeating 100 years later. Russia is currently in the midst of a civil war with outside interference once again. Only this time it is not to remove a monarch but to save the federation from those who seek to break it apart once again.
Europeans are so transfixed on their hatred of Russians they are unable to see the reality of the European geopolitical situation within. Germany is going into a recession faced by a militarized Poland on its Eastern border and a nuclear capable France on the western borders with the most capable army in western Europe. The US is withdrawing from Europe as the big brother stopping the toddler from tearing each other apart. While at the same time the possibility of a recession in the US threatens to destroy the western financial system upon which Europe depends 1929 anyone oh no correction 2029. The Dutch, Belgians and Luxembourg should be very concerned as when elephants fight it's the ants who get trampled. Did Europe find the answer to the German question as history shows it may again be asked especially at Russia's behest. One last point Russia is supplying Belarus with nuclear weapons and soon Oreshnics anyone consider why? Russia needs a land connection with Kaliningrad from Belarus and Lukashenko does need assurance to allow any attack on NATO territory even a weakened NATO.
It going from bad to worse and quickly. I remember a time when if asked where I was from, then I would be able to say, with some pride, that I was European … that time is over, and have for me been over for a couple of years. Yet the last few weeks have unfortunately taken this to another level.
One of my many favourite thinkers is Kishore Mahbubani. His perspective as a voice and commentator on world affairs are refreshingly coming from outside the West. He was one of the first none western authors I read. Throughout his books he often comment on or provide unsolicited advice to both the EU and the US, but sadly so fare no one have listened.
One of his books “The ASEAN Miracle: A Catalyst for Peace” is well worth a read.
I’m from Canada, I liked your comments and looked up Kishore Mahbubani. It turns out that I have read some of his stuff before. He wrote a very interesting article about the possibility of war in the western pacific between… well, you know who. Anyway, he wrote about the first island chain, the second island chain and how when the amerikan military does hypothetical war games the end result is always the same: the amerikans lose. Nevertheless, they continue their belligerence against China. Now that I can almost spell his name from memory I’m going to search for more of his writings, thanks to your post! And btw, his outlook, as you’ve stated, as a non-westerner is extremely refreshing. All the best
Kishore Mahbubani's short book "Has the West Lost it" written I believe in 2016 at this point reads like a prophecy. In it he layed out all the pitfalls the west would face and how to avoid them but through hubris, and like a very inexperienced driver on a road with potholes, the west did not fail to miss all the pitfalls and followed none of his advice. His books in the West are heavily criticized, and it would be advised to read his books before reading the reviews that generally advise against reading his books which are extremely good geopolitical commentary.
The eu and uk elites are completely corrupt, spoiled little shits and their "citizenry" appear to be as stupid as Americans. They deserve all of the pain and misery that is coming their way.
In the UK most people I know are simply totally brainwashed by the BBC and other mainstream media. I’ve tried in vain to have conversations with them about what is happening in the world but just get Starmer is doing his best ( er wtf? ) and Russia is about to bomb us. It’s like being surrounded by a bunch of Zombies.
Sky News, the Sun, the Daily Mail, the Daily Mirror.
BBC is also brainwashing but is secondary.
The last 20 years have been that way here in the US and not just about foreign policy. Things are improving somewhat but only economic depression will completely break the brainwashing.
Jingoism aside, the current crop of leaders were raised to promote subordination to the US. While US will be happy to have EU "keep Russia busy", the US will certainly *not* be interested in EU (or for that matter UK) having a freestanding defense-industry in proportion to their population.
There will be some rearmament, enough to equip the youth of Poland or Romania on a suicide mission. But the bulk of the political impetus will be used for familiar neoliberal austerity, and the funds raised will be looted by corporates - many of which will be US corporates. It also accelerates the self-reinforcing pattern of unwise policy discrediting the centrist political parties, and the centrist parties responding to political decline with gaslighting and increasingly undemocratic tactics. But their various nationalist replacements, who are likely to have their chance soon, have consistently been just as corrupt and just as beholden to US sponsors.
The last big element concerning the EU, is that the US will be entering a phase of domestic investment (won't work to restore primacy, but they'll try), and this requires capital flows (including in its tangible forms, meaning fancy equipment) to be increased in the direction of the US. And manipulating capital flows is the power the US will continue to have for a while, even as tangible capabilities decline. For EU, this means some combination of relative price increases or relative real interest rate increases in the continent, neither of which is helpful in the current situation.
The European war fever has the political function to cover up all these unfavorable trends. But the US retrenchment under Trump is also pretty phony. For now they're pivoting to Iran and Yemen, but that will prove a tough nut to crack. They'll settle for harming the weak, as they always do. Simultaneously, Trump's domestic enemies are also waiting for a mistake, and many are willing to trash the G7 economy for that reason. There will be plenty of chaos all around.
Yes, and then Chi - na. The US marches on with no infrastructure, no money, the Pentagon with little inventory or accounting skills and field incompetent 'showroom weapons' but . . . nukes and a State Dept. still with a will to use them? The nation of laws democracy that mandates democracy in others and breaks laws to make them. Great Again. Or Monroe Doctrine, when were we not?
Re China - seems to me Trump admin is focused on Yemen/Iran. Trade war is going to go at medium level I think, but given the administration’s more pressing priorities (ie helping Netanyahu, and fighting off domestic enemies), Washington is in no shape to threaten measures beyond tariffs and export restrictions. Would be far too easy for Beijing to use Iran or Yemen or even Iraq as a conduit for enforcing discipline on the China hawk faction among Trump’s coalition. Both US Navy and the US ground forces in the region (incl Iraq, Syria) are basically hostages to that potential move.
P.S. What 'domestic enemies'? How many are committed to a truer picture of rule of law democracy and have the backbone, knowledge, and skills to speak up?
Think where that phrase originated and how it planted itself in brains. And how far that concept gets carried. Like 'unprovoked' trying to cover provoked or deterrence meaning assassination or attack. Who defines democracy these days, or rule of law? What's rules based order? Or terrorism (including domestic) that condemns lawful resistance?
Any more I think every discussion or report needs to define PRECISELY what it means by the terms it uses. Words matter. Propaganda 101.
Trump's "domestic enemies" = people or identifiable groups who refuse to accept him being in power. As opposed to "pollitical opposition" (ie, Democrats in the most broad sense) who would - in theory as the term traditionally meant - would fight him in the election but willing to let him govern after getting elected. Also, no commitment to any principle required to qualify as either 'political opposition' or 'enemies'.
Not a fan of either major US party, to put it mildly. Think they're both evil enough for life sentences of the leadership and policymaking staff, at a bare minimum.
Thanks, now I see what you're saying and I agree. My thoughts were of the front line staff trying to carry on despite management's ignorant, uncaring, and dissociated slash and burn. Obama at least could read the manual. I don't think Biden and the 2 DJs could have cared less how to actually govern or lead. Biden all about backroom politics, and DJ with a baseball bat. Funny how the agencies with the most 'problems' per DOGE and cabinet happen to be those most charged with public service. No doubt now who runs government. The gloves are off, the corporate coup is on.
Yep, it was downhill and fast ever since the Patriot act. The Biden group happened to be here as senior level enabler of the machinery of state control, every step of the way. To whatever extent Trump's group has repressive tendencies - I'm afraid we're going to find out - they were handed the whole toolset for it on a silver platter.
See response below. Sorry.
Good article.
I would point out a couple of finer distinctions though.
While the European populace succumed to the barrage of "slava" and "poor suffering white European people" public PR manipulaiton initiially, public polls taken by the European Council over the past 2 years, have showed a steadily declining support for the war among European people. To the point that they stopped publishing the polls by autumn last year!
Now there is the flag waving, but already people are asking qiuestions about where is this money to come from. Especially since the "we must prepare for war choir" is not singing "tax the rich". So one has to wonder its all going to come to a crash at a financial reality check even before the wave takes off.
Excellent analysis! And horrible prospects… In addition, some NATO (and non-NATO) countries in the Balkans make military mini-alliances. Albania, Croatia and Kosovo on one side (they invited Bulgaria too), and allegedly Hungary and Serbia think of following suit. The scene is set, and everyone is looking forward to another war.