Japan in the New Multipolarity

A discussion with Professor Yuichi Hosoya: Japan enters uncharted waters. Internally, political stability is ending, while externally faith in the partnership with the US is eroding quickly.

[Editorial note: Hola, Pascal here. I’m experimenting with this new format in which I provide a summary of the talks with my guests on the YouTube Channel. Please let me know in the comments if this is helpful or not.]

Kyoto, November 6—With the US election not yet decided (due to the time difference), I was holding a talk with Professor Yuichi Hosoya of Keio University. We discussed Japan’s domestic politics, as the country just went through a leadership change and a snap election, and then turned to foreign policy. Here are the key insights of how Professor Hosoya interprets the current situation.

Background: In August, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced his intention to step down as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), taking responsibility for a raging financial scandal that outraged much of the electorate. In the context of Japan’s political system, this meant he would also lose the premiership. A power-struggle within the LDP ensued, exacerbated by Kishida’s other decision to dissolve the traditional factions of the LDP in which significant power had been consolidated. In the end, among three top contenders for the job of LDP chief, Shigeru Ishiba—a well-spoken outsider of the party establishment—won the post, ultimately also becoming Japan’e new PM in early October. Sensing an opportunity, Ishiba dissolved parliament and called for a snap election at the end of the month. That, however, did not turn out in his favour. The LDP lost considerable voter share and its overall majority in parliament. Although Ishiba was re-appointed as Prime Minister by the new parliament on November 12, he is now heading a minority government with an uncertain future.

Domestic Instability Ahead

Political Shift: The end of stability in Japanese politics is shocking for both the ruling and opposition parties, leading to uncertainty about future governance. The LDP’s internal factionalism and financial scandals reveal a lack of coherent leadership, undermining its previously strong position.

Misjudged Confidence: Kishida’s snap election decision reflected overconfidence, misreading public sentiment and leading to a significant electoral setback.

Fragmented Opposition: The division among opposition parties prevents them from capitalizing on the LDP’s weaknesses, allowing the ruling party to maintain influence despite internal issues.

Impact on Foreign Relations: As Japan’s political stability wanes, its foreign policy may become less predictable, affecting international relations and agreements.

Future Outlook: The upcoming regular upper house elections (2025) will test the LDP’s ability to regain public trust and navigate the political landscape effectively.

Leadership Dynamics: Ishiba’s tenure as prime minister is precarious; his success hinges on managing internal party dynamics and the fact that at the moment no contender wishes to take over from this position of weakness. Only if Ishiba manages to overcome the fall-out of the recent LDP financial scandal and re-consolidate the power of the party, he will have a future as leader of Japan.

Japan loses faith in US-Japan Alliance

While Japan looks like a docile follower of the United States, its trade policy has been markedly different from that of the US for a long time, and in security terms, too, Tokyo has lost faith in the US as an external protector. The reelection of Donald Trump will now speed up a process that was already geared toward more strategic autonomy. But what will Japan's neighbours think of that?

Strengthening Defense: Japan is acknowledging the need to bolster its defense capabilities amid uncertain U.S. political landscapes, reflecting a proactive stance in national security. This is crucial in balancing external threats and ensuring regional stability.

Indo-Pacific Strategy: With the U.S. advocating for a robust Indo-Pacific strategy, Japan faces the challenge of aligning its foreign policy while preserving its autonomy, indicating a nuanced approach to international relations.

Emerging Global Structures: The rise of BRICS presents Japan with the necessity to engage in multilateral discussions, as traditional alliances face challenges, highlighting the importance of adaptability in foreign policy.

Strategic Autonomy: Japan seeks to establish a unique international identity, diverging from U.S. influence, promoting free trade agreements independently to enhance its economic security and global standing.

North Korean Threat: Japan’s threat perception is shifting, with a focus on North Korea’s unpredictability, to which Japan has no proper domestic solution other than continuing the uneasy military relationships with South Korea and the United States.

Internal Political Dynamics: Japan’s government may face internal pressures to adopt a more neutral stance in international relations, balancing U.S. expectations with its strategic interests.

Confidence-Building with China: Japan is pursuing diplomatic engagement with China through confidence-building measures, illustrating a pragmatic approach to regional stability while managing military preparedness.

Ishiba’s Foreign Policy

This is bonus content, but if you are interested in what I think about Ishiba’s foreign policy announcements shortly before he took over the helm of the Cabinet, here is an assessment from October.

Complex Leadership: Ishiba’s nuanced approach to foreign policy suggests a departure from traditional hawkish stances, reflecting a more multifaceted strategy. His ability to engage in dialogue on security is crucial for Japan’s future.

Asian NATO Vision: The concept of an “Asian NATO” highlights Japan’s perception of increasing regional threats, particularly from China, indicating a shift in defense strategy towards collective security frameworks.

Constitutional Reinterpretation: The push to reinterpret Article 9 of Japan’s constitution reflects ongoing tension between maintaining pacifism and responding to external threats, a balancing act that will define his administration.

Defense Autonomy: By advocating for strategic autonomy, Ishiba aims to ensure Japan can independently safeguard its interests, moving away from over-reliance on U.S. military presence.

Equal Partnership with the U.S.: Ishiba’s desire for a more reciprocal U.S.-Japan alliance indicates a shift towards a more balanced power dynamic, challenging historical perceptions of dependence.

Regional Stability Efforts: His emphasis on cooperation with neighboring countries, including China, suggests a nuanced understanding of diplomacy that seeks to blend deterrence with engagement, crucial for regional peace.

That’s it. Thanks for reading.

Best,

Pascal